A 100-year Projection of Population Aging in Iran Through the Decomposition of Population Momentum Article Swipe
Nazanin Aghaei
,
Rasoul Sadeghi
,
Majid Koosheshi
,
Hassan Eini-Zeinab
,
Nazanin Aghaei
,
Rasoul Sadeghi
,
Majid Koosheshi
,
Hassan Eini-Zeinab
·
YOU?
·
· 2026
· Open Access
·
YOU?
·
· 2026
· Open Access
·
Objectives In Iran, population aging is likely to continue with an increase in the number of older people in the upcoming decades. This study aims to provide a 100-year projection of Iran’s aging population by decomposing population momentum. Methods & Materials This study uses data related to fertility and mortality estimates in Iran from 1996 to 2016. For a 100-year population projection, the cohort-component method was used in R software. The population momentum was calculated, and population aging trends over the study period were analyzed through age distribution. Results The momentum of the Iranian population in 1996, 2006, 2011, and 2016 was positive, but its magnitude gradually decreased. The age-specific momentum analysis revealed that the highest values of momentum were related to the elderly population. According to the population projection, the elderly population of Iran, particularly influenced by population momentum, is expected to increase fourfold, and the aging index is projected to rise from approximately 25 in 2016 to 110 in 2061. However, this increasing trend of the elderly population will not continue beyond 2061, as momentum growth becomes zero and then negative due to low fertility rates. Conclusion The positive values of population momentum are gradually declining. Despite the high rate of aging population in Iran, the country faces significant challenges in developing social policies for older adults. This situation requires Iranian policymakers to adopt necessary reforms in retirement, health, elderly care, and family-friendly policies.
Related Topics
Concepts
Population momentum
Population
Population projection
Population ageing
Momentum (technical analysis)
Demography
Projection (relational algebra)
Population size
Projections of population growth
Population growth
Fertility
Total fertility rate
Population decline
Geography
Population density
Birth rate
Index (typography)
Decomposition method (queueing theory)
Series (stratigraphy)
Statistics
Econometrics
Trend analysis
Developed country
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- fa
- Landing Page
- https://doaj.org/article/d34e31a5e3eb492d85d3f832b7bc7df6
- OA Status
- green
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W7106602300
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W7106602300Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- Title
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A 100-year Projection of Population Aging in Iran Through the Decomposition of Population MomentumWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
faPrimary language
- Publication year
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2026Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2026-03-01Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Nazanin Aghaei, Rasoul Sadeghi, Majid Koosheshi, Hassan Eini-Zeinab, Nazanin Aghaei, Rasoul Sadeghi, Majid Koosheshi, Hassan Eini-ZeinabList of authors in order
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-
https://doaj.org/article/d34e31a5e3eb492d85d3f832b7bc7df6Publisher landing page
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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greenOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://doaj.org/article/d34e31a5e3eb492d85d3f832b7bc7df6Direct OA link when available
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Population momentum, Population, Population projection, Population ageing, Momentum (technical analysis), Demography, Projection (relational algebra), Population size, Projections of population growth, Population growth, Fertility, Total fertility rate, Population decline, Geography, Population density, Birth rate, Index (typography), Decomposition method (queueing theory), Series (stratigraphy), Statistics, Econometrics, Trend analysis, Developed countryTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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| abstract_inverted_index.2061. | 161 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Iran, | 2, 134, 206 |
| abstract_inverted_index.adopt | 225 |
| abstract_inverted_index.aging | 4, 32, 77, 147, 203 |
| abstract_inverted_index.care, | 232 |
| abstract_inverted_index.faces | 209 |
| abstract_inverted_index.index | 148 |
| abstract_inverted_index.older | 16, 217 |
| abstract_inverted_index.study | 23, 42, 81 |
| abstract_inverted_index.trend | 165 |
| abstract_inverted_index.beyond | 173 |
| abstract_inverted_index.growth | 177 |
| abstract_inverted_index.likely | 6 |
| abstract_inverted_index.method | 64 |
| abstract_inverted_index.number | 14 |
| abstract_inverted_index.people | 17 |
| abstract_inverted_index.period | 82 |
| abstract_inverted_index.rates. | 187 |
| abstract_inverted_index.social | 214 |
| abstract_inverted_index.trends | 78 |
| abstract_inverted_index.values | 116, 191 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Despite | 198 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Iranian | 93, 222 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Methods | 38 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Results | 88 |
| abstract_inverted_index.adults. | 218 |
| abstract_inverted_index.becomes | 178 |
| abstract_inverted_index.country | 208 |
| abstract_inverted_index.elderly | 123, 131, 168, 231 |
| abstract_inverted_index.health, | 230 |
| abstract_inverted_index.highest | 115 |
| abstract_inverted_index.provide | 26 |
| abstract_inverted_index.reforms | 227 |
| abstract_inverted_index.related | 45, 120 |
| abstract_inverted_index.through | 85 |
| abstract_inverted_index.100-year | 28, 59 |
| abstract_inverted_index.However, | 162 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Iran’s | 31 |
| abstract_inverted_index.analysis | 111 |
| abstract_inverted_index.analyzed | 84 |
| abstract_inverted_index.continue | 8, 172 |
| abstract_inverted_index.decades. | 21 |
| abstract_inverted_index.expected | 141 |
| abstract_inverted_index.increase | 11, 143 |
| abstract_inverted_index.momentum | 72, 90, 110, 118, 176, 194 |
| abstract_inverted_index.negative | 182 |
| abstract_inverted_index.policies | 215 |
| abstract_inverted_index.positive | 190 |
| abstract_inverted_index.requires | 221 |
| abstract_inverted_index.revealed | 112 |
| abstract_inverted_index.upcoming | 20 |
| abstract_inverted_index.According | 125 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Materials | 40 |
| abstract_inverted_index.estimates | 50 |
| abstract_inverted_index.fertility | 47, 186 |
| abstract_inverted_index.fourfold, | 144 |
| abstract_inverted_index.gradually | 106, 196 |
| abstract_inverted_index.magnitude | 105 |
| abstract_inverted_index.momentum, | 139 |
| abstract_inverted_index.momentum. | 37 |
| abstract_inverted_index.mortality | 49 |
| abstract_inverted_index.necessary | 226 |
| abstract_inverted_index.policies. | 235 |
| abstract_inverted_index.positive, | 102 |
| abstract_inverted_index.projected | 150 |
| abstract_inverted_index.situation | 220 |
| abstract_inverted_index.software. | 69 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Conclusion | 188 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Objectives | 0 |
| abstract_inverted_index.challenges | 211 |
| abstract_inverted_index.declining. | 197 |
| abstract_inverted_index.decreased. | 107 |
| abstract_inverted_index.developing | 213 |
| abstract_inverted_index.increasing | 164 |
| abstract_inverted_index.influenced | 136 |
| abstract_inverted_index.population | 3, 33, 36, 60, 71, 76, 94, 128, 132, 138, 169, 193, 204 |
| abstract_inverted_index.projection | 29 |
| abstract_inverted_index.calculated, | 74 |
| abstract_inverted_index.decomposing | 35 |
| abstract_inverted_index.population. | 124 |
| abstract_inverted_index.projection, | 61, 129 |
| abstract_inverted_index.retirement, | 229 |
| abstract_inverted_index.significant | 210 |
| abstract_inverted_index.age-specific | 109 |
| abstract_inverted_index.particularly | 135 |
| abstract_inverted_index.policymakers | 223 |
| abstract_inverted_index.approximately | 154 |
| abstract_inverted_index.distribution. | 87 |
| abstract_inverted_index.family-friendly | 234 |
| abstract_inverted_index.cohort-component | 63 |
| cited_by_percentile_year | |
| countries_distinct_count | 1 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 8 |
| citation_normalized_percentile |