A Bayesian Mixture Model approach to expected possession values in rugby league Article Swipe
Thomas Sawczuk
,
Anna Palczewska
,
Ben Jones
,
Jan Palczewski
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308222
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308222
This study aimed to introduce a novel Bayesian Mixture Model approach to the development of an EPV model in rugby league, which could produce a smooth pitch surface and estimate individual possession outcome probabilities. 99,966 observations from the 2021 Super League season were used. A set of 33 centres (30 in the field of play, 3 in the opposition try area) were located across the pitch. Each centre held the probability of five possession outcomes occurring (converted/unconverted try, penalty, drop goal and no points). Probabilities at each centre were interpolated to all locations on the pitch and estimated using a Bayesian approach. An EPV measure was derived from the possession outcome probabilities and their points value. The model produced a smooth pitch surface, which was able to provide different possession outcome probabilities and EPVs for every location on the pitch. Differences between team attacking and defensive plots were visualised and an actual vs expected player rating system was developed. The model provides significantly more flexibility than previous zonal approaches, allowing much more insightful results to be obtained. It could easily be adapted to other sports with similar data structures.
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- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308222
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 1
- References
- 13
- Related Works
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- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4404584319
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https://openalex.org/W4404584319Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308222Digital Object Identifier
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A Bayesian Mixture Model approach to expected possession values in rugby leagueWork title
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2024Year of publication
- Publication date
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2024-11-21Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Thomas Sawczuk, Anna Palczewska, Ben Jones, Jan PalczewskiList of authors in order
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308222Publisher landing page
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308222Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Possession (linguistics), League, Statistics, Bayesian probability, Outcome (game theory), Econometrics, Computer science, Mathematics, Physics, Mathematical economics, Astronomy, Linguistics, PhilosophyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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1Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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13Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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