A climate stress testing method for changes in spatially variable rainfall Article Swipe
David McInerney
,
Seth Westra
,
Michael Leonard
,
Bree Bennett
,
Mark Thyer
,
Holger R. Maier
·
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129876
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129876
With emerging evidence that anthropogenic climate change is affecting the spatial pattern of rainfall, it is important to understand how such changes affect a range of climate-sensitive systems. A method for generating multi-site rainfall sequences is presented that enables the exploration of changes in spatial rainfall patterns separately from various other potential changes (e.g. to the averages, extremes, seasonality), thereby enabling the separation of key drivers of change as part of climate stress tests. The proposed method is based on the 'inverse approach' to stochastic weather generation, and is evaluated through a case study with rainfall at 12 sites in the Barossa Valley, South Australia, using a multi-site latent variable stochastic rainfall model. The new method accurately captures (1) observed marginal attributes at each site (i.e. annual totals, seasonality, extreme rainfall, number of dry days, and intermittency), (2) spatial correlation between sites, and (3) observed attributes for areal average rainfall. We then apply the new method to stress test the response of streamflow in the region to changes in spatial rainfall patterns, quantifying how reductions in spatial correlation (while holding all other attributes constant) will lead to reduced mean annual flow and extreme flows, and increased number of low-flow days. The results show that not only can a broad range of rainfall properties (including both marginal and spatial attributes) be simulated using the inverse approach, but also that changes to the spatial properties of rainfall can have large implications on water resources systems, with the potential to amplify or dampen other changes to rainfall attributes.
Related Topics
Concepts
Environmental science
Climate change
Streamflow
Range (aeronautics)
Spatial ecology
Climatology
Spatial variability
Spatial dependence
Common spatial pattern
Intermittency
Meteorology
Statistics
Mathematics
Geography
Geology
Ecology
Drainage basin
Oceanography
Composite material
Materials science
Biology
Cartography
Turbulence
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129876
- OA Status
- hybrid
- Cited By
- 6
- References
- 37
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4382045079
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4382045079Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129876Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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A climate stress testing method for changes in spatially variable rainfallWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2023Year of publication
- Publication date
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2023-06-26Full publication date if available
- Authors
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David McInerney, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Bree Bennett, Mark Thyer, Holger R. MaierList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129876Publisher landing page
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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hybridOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129876Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Environmental science, Climate change, Streamflow, Range (aeronautics), Spatial ecology, Climatology, Spatial variability, Spatial dependence, Common spatial pattern, Intermittency, Meteorology, Statistics, Mathematics, Geography, Geology, Ecology, Drainage basin, Oceanography, Composite material, Materials science, Biology, Cartography, TurbulenceTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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6Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 2, 2024: 4Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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