A mechanistic-statistical species distribution model to explain and forecast wolf (Canis lupus) colonization in South-Eastern France Article Swipe
Julie Louvrier
,
Julien Papaïx
,
Christophe Duchamp
,
Olivier Giménez
·
YOU?
·
· 2019
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2020.100428
YOU?
·
· 2019
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2020.100428
Species distribution models (SDMs) are important statistical tools for ecologists to understand and predict species range. However, standard SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dynamic processes like dispersal. This limitation may lead to bias in inference about species distribution. Here, we adopt the theory of ecological diffusion that has recently been introduced in statistical ecology to incorporate spatio-temporal processes in ecological models. As a case study, we considered the wolf (Canis lupus) that has been recolonizing Eastern France naturally through dispersal from the Apennines since the early 90's. Using partial differential equations for modelling species diffusion and growth in a fragmented landscape, we develop a mechanistic-statistical spatio-temporal model accounting for ecological diffusion, logistic growth and imperfect species detection. We conduct a simulation study and show the ability of our model to i) estimate ecological parameters in various situations with contrasted species detection probability and number of surveyed sites and ii) forecast the distribution into the future. We found that the growth rate of the wolf population in France was explained by the proportion of forest cover, that diffusion was influenced by human density and that species detectability increased with increasing survey effort. Using the parameters estimated from the 2007-2015 period, we then forecasted wolf distribution in 2016 and found good agreement with the actual detections made that year. Our approach may be useful for managing species that interact with human activities to anticipate potential conflicts.
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Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- http://arxiv.org/abs/1912.09676
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.09676
- OA Status
- green
- Cited By
- 19
- References
- 77
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W3008415937Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2020.100428Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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A mechanistic-statistical species distribution model to explain and forecast wolf (Canis lupus) colonization in South-Eastern FranceWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2019Year of publication
- Publication date
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2019-12-20Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Julie Louvrier, Julien Papaïx, Christophe Duchamp, Olivier GiménezList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.09676Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.09676Direct link to full text PDF
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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greenOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.09676Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Biological dispersal, Ecology, Canis, Range (aeronautics), Species distribution, Inference, Population, Geography, Habitat, Biology, Computer science, Artificial intelligence, Materials science, Sociology, Demography, Composite materialTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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19Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 2, 2024: 2, 2023: 5, 2022: 3, 2021: 6Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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77Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| primary_location.source.host_organization_name | Cornell University |
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| primary_location.pdf_url | https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.09676 |
| primary_location.version | submittedVersion |
| primary_location.raw_type | text |
| primary_location.license_id | |
| primary_location.is_accepted | False |
| primary_location.is_published | False |
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| publication_date | 2019-12-20 |
| publication_year | 2019 |
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