A Stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain Approach for Modeling the Dynamics of Cholera Transmission: Exploring the Probability of Disease Persistence or Extinction Article Swipe
Leul Mekonnen Anteneh
,
Mahouton Norbert Hounkonnou
,
Romain Glèlè Kakaï
·
YOU?
·
· 2025
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/math13061018
YOU?
·
· 2025
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/math13061018
In this paper, a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model is developed and analyzed to explore the dynamics of cholera. The multitype branching process is used to compute a stochastic threshold for the CTMC model. Latin hypercube sampling/partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS/PRCC) sensitivity analysis methods are implemented to derive sensitivity indices of model parameters. The results show that the natural death rate μv of a vector is the most sensitive parameter for controlling disease outbreaks. Numerical simulations indicate that the solutions of the CTMC stochastic model are relatively close to the solutions of the deterministic model. Numerical simulations estimate the probability of both disease extinction and outbreak. The probability of cholera extinction is high when it emerges from bacterial concentrations in non-contaminated/safe water in comparison to when it emerges from all infected groups. Thus, any intervention that focuses on reducing the number of infections at the beginning of a cholera outbreak is essential for reducing its transmission.
Related Topics
Concepts
Persistence (discontinuity)
Markov chain
Extinction (optical mineralogy)
Statistical physics
Transmission (telecommunications)
Econometrics
Disease transmission
Continuous-time Markov chain
Computer science
Mathematics
Applied mathematics
Markov model
Markov property
Statistics
Medicine
Biology
Virology
Physics
Engineering
Telecommunications
Geotechnical engineering
Paleontology
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.3390/math13061018
- https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/6/1018/pdf?version=1742529089
- OA Status
- gold
- References
- 63
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4408692421
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4408692421Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.3390/math13061018Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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A Stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain Approach for Modeling the Dynamics of Cholera Transmission: Exploring the Probability of Disease Persistence or ExtinctionWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2025Year of publication
- Publication date
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2025-03-20Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Leul Mekonnen Anteneh, Mahouton Norbert Hounkonnou, Romain Glèlè KakaïList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.3390/math13061018Publisher landing page
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https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/6/1018/pdf?version=1742529089Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/6/1018/pdf?version=1742529089Direct OA link when available
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Persistence (discontinuity), Markov chain, Extinction (optical mineralogy), Statistical physics, Transmission (telecommunications), Econometrics, Disease transmission, Continuous-time Markov chain, Computer science, Mathematics, Applied mathematics, Markov model, Markov property, Statistics, Medicine, Biology, Virology, Physics, Engineering, Telecommunications, Geotechnical engineering, PaleontologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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0Total citation count in OpenAlex
- References (count)
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63Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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