A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term\n temperature and carbon-cycle observations Article Swipe

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Tony E. Wong , Ying Cui , Dana L. Royer , Klaus Keller ·

YOU? · · 2019 · Open Access · · DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1910.11987

The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or\nEarth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our\nunderstanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative\nforcing and the resulting long-term Earth-system response. Current ESS\nestimates are subject to sizable uncertainties. Long-term carbon cycle models\ncan provide a useful avenue to constrain ESS, but previous efforts either use\nrather informal statistical approaches or focus on discrete paleoevents. Here,\nwe improve on previous ESS estimates by using a Bayesian approach to fuse\ndeep-time CO2 and temperature data over the last 420 Myrs with a long-term\ncarbon cycle model. Our median ESS estimate of 3.4 deg C (2.6-4.7 deg C; 5-95%\nrange) shows a narrower range than previous assessments. We show that weaker\nchemical weathering relative to the a priori model configuration via reduced\nweatherable land area yields better agreement with temperature records during\nthe Cretaceous. Research into improving the understanding about these\nweathering mechanisms hence provides potentially powerful avenues to further\nconstrain this fundamental Earth-system property.\n

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Carbon cycle Radiative forcing Term (time) Forcing (mathematics) Sensitivity (control systems) Earth system science Range (aeronautics) Environmental science Atmospheric sciences Meteorology Geology Physics Materials science Oceanography Quantum mechanics Composite material Engineering Biology Ecology Aerosol Ecosystem Electronic engineering

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Type: preprint
Language: en
Landing Page: http://arxiv.org/abs/1910.11987
PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.11987
OA Status: green
Related Works: 10
OpenAlex ID: https://openalex.org/W4288088928

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1910.11987

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Title: A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term\n temperature and carbon-cycle observations

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Type: preprint

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Language: en

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Publication year: 2019

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Publication date: 2019-10-25

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Authors: Tony E. Wong, Ying Cui, Dana L. Royer, Klaus Keller

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Landing page: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.11987

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PDF URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.11987

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Concepts: Carbon cycle, Radiative forcing, Term (time), Forcing (mathematics), Sensitivity (control systems), Earth system science, Range (aeronautics), Environmental science, Atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, Geology, Physics, Materials science, Oceanography, Quantum mechanics, Composite material, Engineering, Biology, Ecology, Aerosol, Ecosystem, Electronic engineering

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