Accelerated nature-based mitigation can re-open the window to 1.5°C Article Swipe

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Michael Wolosin , Johan Rockström , Christiana Figueres , M. Sanjayan , Tim Beringer , Bronson W. Griscom , David Hole ·

YOU? · · 2025 · Open Access · · DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6164097/v1

Cutting carbon emissions in half every decade through 2050¹ has become a benchmark for global², national and corporate target-setting that delivers the Paris goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, with a rapidly shrinking remaining carbon budget³, here we show that halving fossil emissions every decade alongside scaling negative emissions technologies (NETs) to balance remaining fossil CO₂ emissions by 2050, is no longer enough to avoid significant and lengthy overshoot past 1.5°C, unless improvements in ecosystem stewardship are also accelerated beyond levels currently assumed in most 1.5°C-aligned climate scenarios. We further show that a decadal acceleration of natural climate solutions, reaching net-zero emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use by 2030 and -7 gigatons CO₂e per year of net removals by 2050, is both consistent with sectoral (or “bottom-up”) estimates of cost-effective potential and can keep the window to 1.5°C decisively open, if delivered alongside decadal halvings of fossil-fuel emissions and scaling of NETs. This “Carbon Law for Nature” mitigation pathway can feasibly be achieved through a transformation of humanity’s land and coastal stewardship: protecting remaining intact ecosystems, climate-smart management of agricultural and forestry lands, restoring natural ecosystems where appropriate, and reducing excess demand for land-intensive products. Crucially, following this pathway also minimizes the magnitude and length of time of temperature overshoot, reducing both the chronic impacts of climate change⁴ and the risk of exceeding tipping points in the earth system⁵.

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Type: preprint
Language: en
Landing Page: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6164097/v1
PDF: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-6164097/latest.pdf
OA Status: gold
References: 31
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6164097/v1

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Title: Accelerated nature-based mitigation can re-open the window to 1.5°C

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Type: preprint

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Language: en

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Publication year: 2025

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Publication date: 2025-04-22

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Authors: Michael Wolosin, Johan Rockström, Christiana Figueres, M. Sanjayan, Tim Beringer, Bronson W. Griscom, David Hole

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Landing page: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6164097/v1

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Concepts: Window (computing), Computer science, Operating system

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