AERA-MIP: Emission pathways, remaining budgets and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC global warming stabilization Article Swipe
Yona Silvy
,
Thomas L. Frölicher
,
Jens Terhaar
,
Fortunat Joos
,
Friedrich A. Burger
,
Fabrice Lacroix
,
Myles Allen
,
Raffaele Bernadello
,
Laurent Bopp
,
Victor Brovkin
,
Jonathan Buzan
,
Patricia Cadule
,
Martin Dix
,
John P. Dunne
,
Pierre Friedlingstein
,
Goran Georgievski
,
Tomohiro Hajima
,
Stuart Jenkins
,
Michio Kawamiya
,
Nancy Y. Kiang
,
Vladimir Lapin
,
Donghyun Lee
,
Paul Lerner
,
Nadine Mengis
,
Estela A. Monteiro
,
David Paynter
,
Glen P. Peters
,
Anastasia Romanou
,
Jörg Schwinger
,
Sarah Sparrow
,
Eric Stofferahn
,
Jerry Tjiputra
,
Étienne Tourigny
,
Tilo Ziehn
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488
While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming well below 2 °C, or pursuing 1.5 °C, the climate modeling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth System Models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways needed to meet such agreed warming levels, and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels by iteratively adjusting their emissions. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional CMIP scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5°C warming level necessitates a 40 % (model full range: 7 to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO2-forcing equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (-1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr-1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C target is reached. For the 2.0 °C warming level, CO2-fe emissions require a 47 % (8 to 92 %) reduction until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (-1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr-1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO2-fe emissions. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO2-fe emission budget by a factor 2.2 (-0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean and the northern high-latitude land remain carbon sinks over centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of target-based emission-driven simulations offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.
Related Topics
Concepts
Greenhouse gas
Global warming
Environmental science
Representative Concentration Pathways
Forcing (mathematics)
Earth system science
Atmospheric sciences
Range (aeronautics)
Climate change
Global temperature
Limiting
Carbon cycle
Climatology
Climate model
Ecology
Ecosystem
Engineering
Physics
Biology
Mechanical engineering
Aerospace engineering
Geology
Metadata
- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 8
- References
- 28
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4392234221
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
-
https://openalex.org/W4392234221Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
AERA-MIP: Emission pathways, remaining budgets and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC global warming stabilizationWork title
- Type
-
preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2024Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2024-02-28Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernadello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John P. Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Étienne Tourigny, Tilo ZiehnList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488Publisher landing page
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
-
Greenhouse gas, Global warming, Environmental science, Representative Concentration Pathways, Forcing (mathematics), Earth system science, Atmospheric sciences, Range (aeronautics), Climate change, Global temperature, Limiting, Carbon cycle, Climatology, Climate model, Ecology, Ecosystem, Engineering, Physics, Biology, Mechanical engineering, Aerospace engineering, GeologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
8Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2025: 1, 2024: 7Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
-
28Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I116578957, https://openalex.org/I118564535, https://openalex.org/I1281210470, https://openalex.org/I1294671590, https://openalex.org/I1299204452, https://openalex.org/I1315852903, https://openalex.org/I142476485, https://openalex.org/I191217947, https://openalex.org/I23923803, https://openalex.org/I2799803557, https://openalex.org/I2799966484, https://openalex.org/I34403800, https://openalex.org/I39804081, https://openalex.org/I40120149, https://openalex.org/I4210107808, https://openalex.org/I4210108282, https://openalex.org/I4210131439, https://openalex.org/I4210163131, https://openalex.org/I66958751, https://openalex.org/I78577930, https://openalex.org/I9617848 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].id | https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].score | 0.800000011920929 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name | Climate action |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.90497986 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | True |