An expert‐based system to predict population survival rate from health data Article Swipe
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14073
Timely detection and understanding of causes for population decline are essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Assessing trends in population size has been the standard approach, but we propose that monitoring population health could prove more effective. We collated data from 7 bottlenose dolphin ( Tursiops trun catus) populations in the southeastern United States to develop a method for estimating survival probability based on a suite of health measures identified by experts as indices for inflammatory, metabolic, pulmonary, and neuroendocrine systems. We used logistic regression to implement the veterinary expert system for outcome prediction (VESOP) within a Bayesian analysis framework. We fitted parameters with records from 5 of the sites that had a robust network of responders to marine mammal strandings and frequent photographic identification surveys that documented definitive survival outcomes. We also conducted capture–mark–recapture (CMR) analyses of photographic identification data to obtain separate estimates of population survival rates for comparison with VESOP survival estimates. The VESOP analyses showed that multiple measures of health, particularly markers of inflammation, were predictive of 1‐ and 2‐year individual survival. The highest mortality risk 1 year following health assessment related to low alkaline phosphatase (odds ratio [OR] = 10.2 [95% CI: 3.41–26.8]), whereas 2‐year mortality was most influenced by elevated globulin (OR = 9.60 [95% CI: 3.88–22.4]); both are markers of inflammation. The VESOP model predicted population‐level survival rates that correlated with estimated survival rates from CMR analyses for the same populations (1‐year Pearson's r = 0.99, p = 1.52 × 10 –5 ; 2‐year r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Although our proposed approach will not detect acute mortality threats that are largely independent of animal health, such as harmful algal blooms, it can be used to detect chronic health conditions that increase mortality risk. Random sampling of the population is important and advancement in remote sampling methods could facilitate more random selection of subjects, obtainment of larger sample sizes, and extension of the approach to other wildlife species.
Related Topics
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14073
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/cobi.14073
- OA Status
- hybrid
- Cited By
- 12
- References
- 39
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4319462042
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4319462042Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14073Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
An expert‐based system to predict population survival rate from health dataWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2023Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2023-02-08Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Lori H. Schwacke, Len Thomas, Randall S. Wells, Teresa K. Rowles, Gregory D. Bossart, Forrest I. Townsend, Marilyn Mazzoil, Jason B. Allen, Brian C. Balmer, Aaron A. Barleycorn, Ashley Barratclough, Louise Burt, Sylvain De Guise, Deborah Fauquier, Forrest M. Gomez, Nicholas M. Kellar, John H. Schwacke, Todd Speakman, Eric D. Stolen, Brian M. Quigley, Eric S. Zolman, Cynthia R. SmithList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14073Publisher landing page
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/cobi.14073Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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hybridOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/cobi.14073Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Population, Mark and recapture, Logistic regression, Demography, Survival analysis, Medicine, Odds ratio, Geography, Environmental health, Internal medicine, SociologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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12Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2025: 7, 2024: 4, 2023: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
-
39Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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