An external validation of the QCOVID3 risk prediction algorithm for risk of hospitalisation and death from COVID-19: An observational, prospective cohort study of 1.66m vaccinated adults in Wales, UK Article Swipe
Jane Lyons
,
Vahé Nafilyan
,
Ashley Akbari
,
Stuart Bedston
,
Ewen M Harrison
,
Andrew Hayward
,
Julia Hippisley‐Cox
,
Frank Kee
,
Kamlesh Khunti
,
Shamim Rahman
,
Aziz Sheikh
,
Fatemeh Torabi
,
Ronan A Lyons
·
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285979
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285979
Introduction At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an urgent need to identify individuals at highest risk of severe outcomes, such as hospitalisation and death following infection. The QCOVID risk prediction algorithms emerged as key tools in facilitating this which were further developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic to identify groups of people at highest risk of severe COVID-19 related outcomes following one or two doses of vaccine. Objectives To externally validate the QCOVID3 algorithm based on primary and secondary care records for Wales, UK. Methods We conducted an observational, prospective cohort based on electronic health care records for 1.66m vaccinated adults living in Wales on 8 th December 2020, with follow-up until 15 th June 2021. Follow-up started from day 14 post vaccination to allow the full effect of the vaccine. Results The scores produced by the QCOVID3 risk algorithm showed high levels of discrimination for both COVID-19 related deaths and hospital admissions and good calibration (Harrell C statistic: ≥ 0.828). Conclusion This validation of the updated QCOVID3 risk algorithms in the adult vaccinated Welsh population has shown that the algorithms are valid for use in the Welsh population, and applicable on a population independent of the original study, which has not been previously reported. This study provides further evidence that the QCOVID algorithms can help inform public health risk management on the ongoing surveillance and intervention to manage COVID-19 related risks.
Related Topics
Concepts
Observational study
Medicine
Population
Pandemic
Cohort study
Vaccination
Cohort
Algorithm
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Environmental health
Virology
Internal medicine
Computer science
Disease
Infectious disease (medical specialty)
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285979
- https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0285979&type=printable
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 3
- References
- 24
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4377047179
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4377047179Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285979Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
An external validation of the QCOVID3 risk prediction algorithm for risk of hospitalisation and death from COVID-19: An observational, prospective cohort study of 1.66m vaccinated adults in Wales, UKWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2023Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2023-05-18Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Jane Lyons, Vahé Nafilyan, Ashley Akbari, Stuart Bedston, Ewen M Harrison, Andrew Hayward, Julia Hippisley‐Cox, Frank Kee, Kamlesh Khunti, Shamim Rahman, Aziz Sheikh, Fatemeh Torabi, Ronan A LyonsList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285979Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
-
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0285979&type=printableDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0285979&type=printableDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
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Observational study, Medicine, Population, Pandemic, Cohort study, Vaccination, Cohort, Algorithm, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Environmental health, Virology, Internal medicine, Computer science, Disease, Infectious disease (medical specialty)Top concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
3Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
-
2025: 2, 2023: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
-
24Number of works referenced by this work
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-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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