Anticipating infectious disease re-emergence and elimination: a test of early warning signals using empirically based models Article Swipe
Andrew T. Tredennick
,
Eamon B. O’Dea
,
Matthew J. Ferrari
,
Andrew Park
,
Pejman Rohani
,
John M. Drake
·
YOU?
·
· 2022
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123
YOU?
·
· 2022
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123
Timely forecasts of the emergence, re-emergence and elimination of human infectious diseases allow for proactive, rather than reactive, decisions that save lives. Recent theory suggests that a generic feature of dynamical systems approaching a tipping point—early warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD)—can anticipate disease emergence and elimination. Empirical studies documenting CSD in observed disease dynamics are scarce, but such demonstration of concept is essential to the further development of model-independent outbreak detection systems. Here, we use fitted, mechanistic models of measles transmission in four cities in Niger to detect CSD through statistical EWS. We find that several EWS accurately anticipate measles re-emergence and elimination, suggesting that CSD should be detectable before disease transmission systems cross key tipping points. These findings support the idea that statistical signals based on CSD, coupled with decision-support algorithms and expert judgement, could provide the basis for early warning systems of disease outbreaks.
Related Topics
Concepts
Warning system
Computer science
Measles
Judgement
Outbreak
Infectious disease (medical specialty)
Risk analysis (engineering)
Disease
Early warning system
Data science
Econometrics
Operations research
Biology
Medicine
Economics
Virology
Mathematics
Telecommunications
Political science
Law
Pathology
Vaccination
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123
- OA Status
- hybrid
- Cited By
- 14
- References
- 49
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4289526490
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
-
https://openalex.org/W4289526490Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Anticipating infectious disease re-emergence and elimination: a test of early warning signals using empirically based modelsWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2022Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2022-08-01Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Andrew T. Tredennick, Eamon B. O’Dea, Matthew J. Ferrari, Andrew Park, Pejman Rohani, John M. DrakeList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123Publisher landing page
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
hybridOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
-
Warning system, Computer science, Measles, Judgement, Outbreak, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Risk analysis (engineering), Disease, Early warning system, Data science, Econometrics, Operations research, Biology, Medicine, Economics, Virology, Mathematics, Telecommunications, Political science, Law, Pathology, VaccinationTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
14Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
-
2025: 1, 2024: 7, 2023: 3, 2022: 3Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
-
49Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
Full payload
| id | https://openalex.org/W4289526490 |
|---|---|
| doi | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| ids.doi | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| ids.pmid | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35919978 |
| ids.openalex | https://openalex.org/W4289526490 |
| fwci | 1.91313778 |
| mesh[0].qualifier_ui | Q000175 |
| mesh[0].descriptor_ui | D003141 |
| mesh[0].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[0].qualifier_name | diagnosis |
| mesh[0].descriptor_name | Communicable Diseases |
| mesh[1].qualifier_ui | Q000453 |
| mesh[1].descriptor_ui | D003141 |
| mesh[1].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[1].qualifier_name | epidemiology |
| mesh[1].descriptor_name | Communicable Diseases |
| mesh[2].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[2].descriptor_ui | D004196 |
| mesh[2].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[2].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[2].descriptor_name | Disease Outbreaks |
| mesh[3].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[3].descriptor_ui | D005544 |
| mesh[3].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[3].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[3].descriptor_name | Forecasting |
| mesh[4].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[4].descriptor_ui | D006801 |
| mesh[4].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[4].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[4].descriptor_name | Humans |
| mesh[5].qualifier_ui | Q000175 |
| mesh[5].descriptor_ui | D008457 |
| mesh[5].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[5].qualifier_name | diagnosis |
| mesh[5].descriptor_name | Measles |
| mesh[6].qualifier_ui | Q000453 |
| mesh[6].descriptor_ui | D008457 |
| mesh[6].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[6].qualifier_name | epidemiology |
| mesh[6].descriptor_name | Measles |
| mesh[7].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[7].descriptor_ui | D008954 |
| mesh[7].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[7].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[7].descriptor_name | Models, Biological |
| mesh[8].qualifier_ui | Q000175 |
| mesh[8].descriptor_ui | D003141 |
| mesh[8].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[8].qualifier_name | diagnosis |
| mesh[8].descriptor_name | Communicable Diseases |
| mesh[9].qualifier_ui | Q000453 |
| mesh[9].descriptor_ui | D003141 |
| mesh[9].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[9].qualifier_name | epidemiology |
| mesh[9].descriptor_name | Communicable Diseases |
| mesh[10].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[10].descriptor_ui | D004196 |
| mesh[10].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[10].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[10].descriptor_name | Disease Outbreaks |
| mesh[11].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[11].descriptor_ui | D005544 |
| mesh[11].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[11].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[11].descriptor_name | Forecasting |
| mesh[12].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[12].descriptor_ui | D006801 |
| mesh[12].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[12].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[12].descriptor_name | Humans |
| mesh[13].qualifier_ui | Q000175 |
| mesh[13].descriptor_ui | D008457 |
| mesh[13].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[13].qualifier_name | diagnosis |
| mesh[13].descriptor_name | Measles |
| mesh[14].qualifier_ui | Q000453 |
| mesh[14].descriptor_ui | D008457 |
| mesh[14].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[14].qualifier_name | epidemiology |
| mesh[14].descriptor_name | Measles |
| mesh[15].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[15].descriptor_ui | D008954 |
| mesh[15].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[15].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[15].descriptor_name | Models, Biological |
| mesh[16].qualifier_ui | Q000175 |
| mesh[16].descriptor_ui | D003141 |
| mesh[16].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[16].qualifier_name | diagnosis |
| mesh[16].descriptor_name | Communicable Diseases |
| mesh[17].qualifier_ui | Q000453 |
| mesh[17].descriptor_ui | D003141 |
| mesh[17].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[17].qualifier_name | epidemiology |
| mesh[17].descriptor_name | Communicable Diseases |
| mesh[18].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[18].descriptor_ui | D004196 |
| mesh[18].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[18].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[18].descriptor_name | Disease Outbreaks |
| mesh[19].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[19].descriptor_ui | D005544 |
| mesh[19].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[19].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[19].descriptor_name | Forecasting |
| mesh[20].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[20].descriptor_ui | D006801 |
| mesh[20].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[20].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[20].descriptor_name | Humans |
| mesh[21].qualifier_ui | Q000175 |
| mesh[21].descriptor_ui | D008457 |
| mesh[21].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[21].qualifier_name | diagnosis |
| mesh[21].descriptor_name | Measles |
| mesh[22].qualifier_ui | Q000453 |
| mesh[22].descriptor_ui | D008457 |
| mesh[22].is_major_topic | True |
| mesh[22].qualifier_name | epidemiology |
| mesh[22].descriptor_name | Measles |
| mesh[23].qualifier_ui | |
| mesh[23].descriptor_ui | D008954 |
| mesh[23].is_major_topic | False |
| mesh[23].qualifier_name | |
| mesh[23].descriptor_name | Models, Biological |
| type | article |
| title | Anticipating infectious disease re-emergence and elimination: a test of early warning signals using empirically based models |
| biblio.issue | 193 |
| biblio.volume | 19 |
| biblio.last_page | 20220123 |
| biblio.first_page | 20220123 |
| topics[0].id | https://openalex.org/T13377 |
| topics[0].field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/23 |
| topics[0].field.display_name | Environmental Science |
| topics[0].score | 0.9998999834060669 |
| topics[0].domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/3 |
| topics[0].domain.display_name | Physical Sciences |
| topics[0].subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/2306 |
| topics[0].subfield.display_name | Global and Planetary Change |
| topics[0].display_name | Ecosystem dynamics and resilience |
| topics[1].id | https://openalex.org/T10410 |
| topics[1].field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/26 |
| topics[1].field.display_name | Mathematics |
| topics[1].score | 0.9854000210762024 |
| topics[1].domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/3 |
| topics[1].domain.display_name | Physical Sciences |
| topics[1].subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/2611 |
| topics[1].subfield.display_name | Modeling and Simulation |
| topics[1].display_name | COVID-19 epidemiological studies |
| topics[2].id | https://openalex.org/T11913 |
| topics[2].field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/23 |
| topics[2].field.display_name | Environmental Science |
| topics[2].score | 0.9797999858856201 |
| topics[2].domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/3 |
| topics[2].domain.display_name | Physical Sciences |
| topics[2].subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/2303 |
| topics[2].subfield.display_name | Ecology |
| topics[2].display_name | Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies |
| is_xpac | False |
| apc_list | |
| apc_paid | |
| concepts[0].id | https://openalex.org/C29825287 |
| concepts[0].level | 2 |
| concepts[0].score | 0.6705920696258545 |
| concepts[0].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1427940 |
| concepts[0].display_name | Warning system |
| concepts[1].id | https://openalex.org/C41008148 |
| concepts[1].level | 0 |
| concepts[1].score | 0.5642743706703186 |
| concepts[1].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198 |
| concepts[1].display_name | Computer science |
| concepts[2].id | https://openalex.org/C2776438120 |
| concepts[2].level | 3 |
| concepts[2].score | 0.5639971494674683 |
| concepts[2].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q79793 |
| concepts[2].display_name | Measles |
| concepts[3].id | https://openalex.org/C2776548248 |
| concepts[3].level | 2 |
| concepts[3].score | 0.5629667043685913 |
| concepts[3].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12621536 |
| concepts[3].display_name | Judgement |
| concepts[4].id | https://openalex.org/C116675565 |
| concepts[4].level | 2 |
| concepts[4].score | 0.5554507374763489 |
| concepts[4].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3241045 |
| concepts[4].display_name | Outbreak |
| concepts[5].id | https://openalex.org/C524204448 |
| concepts[5].level | 3 |
| concepts[5].score | 0.5300329327583313 |
| concepts[5].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q788926 |
| concepts[5].display_name | Infectious disease (medical specialty) |
| concepts[6].id | https://openalex.org/C112930515 |
| concepts[6].level | 1 |
| concepts[6].score | 0.47003501653671265 |
| concepts[6].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547 |
| concepts[6].display_name | Risk analysis (engineering) |
| concepts[7].id | https://openalex.org/C2779134260 |
| concepts[7].level | 2 |
| concepts[7].score | 0.43121060729026794 |
| concepts[7].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136 |
| concepts[7].display_name | Disease |
| concepts[8].id | https://openalex.org/C2779296788 |
| concepts[8].level | 3 |
| concepts[8].score | 0.4187380075454712 |
| concepts[8].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5326904 |
| concepts[8].display_name | Early warning system |
| concepts[9].id | https://openalex.org/C2522767166 |
| concepts[9].level | 1 |
| concepts[9].score | 0.38077133893966675 |
| concepts[9].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463 |
| concepts[9].display_name | Data science |
| concepts[10].id | https://openalex.org/C149782125 |
| concepts[10].level | 1 |
| concepts[10].score | 0.350833535194397 |
| concepts[10].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039 |
| concepts[10].display_name | Econometrics |
| concepts[11].id | https://openalex.org/C42475967 |
| concepts[11].level | 1 |
| concepts[11].score | 0.32479920983314514 |
| concepts[11].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292 |
| concepts[11].display_name | Operations research |
| concepts[12].id | https://openalex.org/C86803240 |
| concepts[12].level | 0 |
| concepts[12].score | 0.21570825576782227 |
| concepts[12].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420 |
| concepts[12].display_name | Biology |
| concepts[13].id | https://openalex.org/C71924100 |
| concepts[13].level | 0 |
| concepts[13].score | 0.20864620804786682 |
| concepts[13].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190 |
| concepts[13].display_name | Medicine |
| concepts[14].id | https://openalex.org/C162324750 |
| concepts[14].level | 0 |
| concepts[14].score | 0.1325046420097351 |
| concepts[14].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134 |
| concepts[14].display_name | Economics |
| concepts[15].id | https://openalex.org/C159047783 |
| concepts[15].level | 1 |
| concepts[15].score | 0.12452849745750427 |
| concepts[15].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7215 |
| concepts[15].display_name | Virology |
| concepts[16].id | https://openalex.org/C33923547 |
| concepts[16].level | 0 |
| concepts[16].score | 0.12295296788215637 |
| concepts[16].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395 |
| concepts[16].display_name | Mathematics |
| concepts[17].id | https://openalex.org/C76155785 |
| concepts[17].level | 1 |
| concepts[17].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[17].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q418 |
| concepts[17].display_name | Telecommunications |
| concepts[18].id | https://openalex.org/C17744445 |
| concepts[18].level | 0 |
| concepts[18].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[18].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442 |
| concepts[18].display_name | Political science |
| concepts[19].id | https://openalex.org/C199539241 |
| concepts[19].level | 1 |
| concepts[19].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[19].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748 |
| concepts[19].display_name | Law |
| concepts[20].id | https://openalex.org/C142724271 |
| concepts[20].level | 1 |
| concepts[20].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[20].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208 |
| concepts[20].display_name | Pathology |
| concepts[21].id | https://openalex.org/C22070199 |
| concepts[21].level | 2 |
| concepts[21].score | 0.0 |
| concepts[21].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192995 |
| concepts[21].display_name | Vaccination |
| keywords[0].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/warning-system |
| keywords[0].score | 0.6705920696258545 |
| keywords[0].display_name | Warning system |
| keywords[1].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science |
| keywords[1].score | 0.5642743706703186 |
| keywords[1].display_name | Computer science |
| keywords[2].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/measles |
| keywords[2].score | 0.5639971494674683 |
| keywords[2].display_name | Measles |
| keywords[3].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/judgement |
| keywords[3].score | 0.5629667043685913 |
| keywords[3].display_name | Judgement |
| keywords[4].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/outbreak |
| keywords[4].score | 0.5554507374763489 |
| keywords[4].display_name | Outbreak |
| keywords[5].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/infectious-disease |
| keywords[5].score | 0.5300329327583313 |
| keywords[5].display_name | Infectious disease (medical specialty) |
| keywords[6].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-analysis |
| keywords[6].score | 0.47003501653671265 |
| keywords[6].display_name | Risk analysis (engineering) |
| keywords[7].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/disease |
| keywords[7].score | 0.43121060729026794 |
| keywords[7].display_name | Disease |
| keywords[8].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/early-warning-system |
| keywords[8].score | 0.4187380075454712 |
| keywords[8].display_name | Early warning system |
| keywords[9].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/data-science |
| keywords[9].score | 0.38077133893966675 |
| keywords[9].display_name | Data science |
| keywords[10].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/econometrics |
| keywords[10].score | 0.350833535194397 |
| keywords[10].display_name | Econometrics |
| keywords[11].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/operations-research |
| keywords[11].score | 0.32479920983314514 |
| keywords[11].display_name | Operations research |
| keywords[12].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/biology |
| keywords[12].score | 0.21570825576782227 |
| keywords[12].display_name | Biology |
| keywords[13].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/medicine |
| keywords[13].score | 0.20864620804786682 |
| keywords[13].display_name | Medicine |
| keywords[14].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/economics |
| keywords[14].score | 0.1325046420097351 |
| keywords[14].display_name | Economics |
| keywords[15].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/virology |
| keywords[15].score | 0.12452849745750427 |
| keywords[15].display_name | Virology |
| keywords[16].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematics |
| keywords[16].score | 0.12295296788215637 |
| keywords[16].display_name | Mathematics |
| language | en |
| locations[0].id | doi:10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| locations[0].is_oa | True |
| locations[0].source.id | https://openalex.org/S129150467 |
| locations[0].source.issn | 1742-5662, 1742-5689 |
| locations[0].source.type | journal |
| locations[0].source.is_oa | False |
| locations[0].source.issn_l | 1742-5662 |
| locations[0].source.is_core | True |
| locations[0].source.is_in_doaj | False |
| locations[0].source.display_name | Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
| locations[0].source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/P4310319787 |
| locations[0].source.host_organization_name | Royal Society |
| locations[0].source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/P4310319787 |
| locations[0].source.host_organization_lineage_names | Royal Society |
| locations[0].license | cc-by |
| locations[0].pdf_url | |
| locations[0].version | publishedVersion |
| locations[0].raw_type | journal-article |
| locations[0].license_id | https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by |
| locations[0].is_accepted | True |
| locations[0].is_published | True |
| locations[0].raw_source_name | Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
| locations[0].landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| locations[1].id | pmid:35919978 |
| locations[1].is_oa | False |
| locations[1].source.id | https://openalex.org/S4306525036 |
| locations[1].source.issn | |
| locations[1].source.type | repository |
| locations[1].source.is_oa | False |
| locations[1].source.issn_l | |
| locations[1].source.is_core | False |
| locations[1].source.is_in_doaj | False |
| locations[1].source.display_name | PubMed |
| locations[1].source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/I1299303238 |
| locations[1].source.host_organization_name | National Institutes of Health |
| locations[1].source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/I1299303238 |
| locations[1].license | |
| locations[1].pdf_url | |
| locations[1].version | publishedVersion |
| locations[1].raw_type | |
| locations[1].license_id | |
| locations[1].is_accepted | True |
| locations[1].is_published | True |
| locations[1].raw_source_name | Journal of the Royal Society, Interface |
| locations[1].landing_page_url | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35919978 |
| locations[2].id | pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9346357 |
| locations[2].is_oa | True |
| locations[2].source.id | https://openalex.org/S2764455111 |
| locations[2].source.issn | |
| locations[2].source.type | repository |
| locations[2].source.is_oa | False |
| locations[2].source.issn_l | |
| locations[2].source.is_core | False |
| locations[2].source.is_in_doaj | False |
| locations[2].source.display_name | PubMed Central |
| locations[2].source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/I1299303238 |
| locations[2].source.host_organization_name | National Institutes of Health |
| locations[2].source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/I1299303238 |
| locations[2].license | cc-by |
| locations[2].pdf_url | |
| locations[2].version | submittedVersion |
| locations[2].raw_type | Text |
| locations[2].license_id | https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by |
| locations[2].is_accepted | False |
| locations[2].is_published | False |
| locations[2].raw_source_name | J R Soc Interface |
| locations[2].landing_page_url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/9346357 |
| indexed_in | crossref, pubmed |
| authorships[0].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5036111133 |
| authorships[0].author.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1254-3339 |
| authorships[0].author.display_name | Andrew T. Tredennick |
| authorships[0].countries | US |
| authorships[0].affiliations[0].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[0].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string | Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[0].affiliations[1].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I4210135369, https://openalex.org/I4210143979 |
| authorships[0].affiliations[1].raw_affiliation_string | Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc., 1610 East Reynolds Street, Laramie, WY 82070, USA |
| authorships[0].affiliations[2].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[0].affiliations[2].raw_affiliation_string | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].id | https://openalex.org/I4210143979 |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].ror | https://ror.org/04cv8g472 |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].type | company |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].lineage | https://openalex.org/I4210143979 |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].country_code | US |
| authorships[0].institutions[0].display_name | Systems Technology (United States) |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].id | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].ror | https://ror.org/00te3t702 |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].type | education |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].lineage | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].country_code | US |
| authorships[0].institutions[1].display_name | University of Georgia |
| authorships[0].institutions[2].id | https://openalex.org/I4210135369 |
| authorships[0].institutions[2].ror | https://ror.org/03y5ndk86 |
| authorships[0].institutions[2].type | company |
| authorships[0].institutions[2].lineage | https://openalex.org/I4210135369 |
| authorships[0].institutions[2].country_code | US |
| authorships[0].institutions[2].display_name | Western EcoSystems Technology (United States) |
| authorships[0].author_position | first |
| authorships[0].raw_author_name | Andrew T. Tredennick |
| authorships[0].is_corresponding | True |
| authorships[0].raw_affiliation_strings | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA, Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc., 1610 East Reynolds Street, Laramie, WY 82070, USA |
| authorships[1].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5041483843 |
| authorships[1].author.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4748-683X |
| authorships[1].author.display_name | Eamon B. O’Dea |
| authorships[1].countries | US |
| authorships[1].affiliations[0].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[1].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string | Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[1].affiliations[1].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[1].affiliations[1].raw_affiliation_string | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].id | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].ror | https://ror.org/00te3t702 |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].type | education |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].lineage | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].country_code | US |
| authorships[1].institutions[0].display_name | University of Georgia |
| authorships[1].author_position | middle |
| authorships[1].raw_author_name | Eamon B. O’Dea |
| authorships[1].is_corresponding | False |
| authorships[1].raw_affiliation_strings | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[2].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5073882288 |
| authorships[2].author.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5251-8168 |
| authorships[2].author.display_name | Matthew J. Ferrari |
| authorships[2].countries | US |
| authorships[2].affiliations[0].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I130769515, https://openalex.org/I1338678786 |
| authorships[2].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string | The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA |
| authorships[2].institutions[0].id | https://openalex.org/I1338678786 |
| authorships[2].institutions[0].ror | https://ror.org/01skhd946 |
| authorships[2].institutions[0].type | nonprofit |
| authorships[2].institutions[0].lineage | https://openalex.org/I1338678786 |
| authorships[2].institutions[0].country_code | US |
| authorships[2].institutions[0].display_name | Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy |
| authorships[2].institutions[1].id | https://openalex.org/I130769515 |
| authorships[2].institutions[1].ror | https://ror.org/04p491231 |
| authorships[2].institutions[1].type | education |
| authorships[2].institutions[1].lineage | https://openalex.org/I130769515 |
| authorships[2].institutions[1].country_code | US |
| authorships[2].institutions[1].display_name | Pennsylvania State University |
| authorships[2].author_position | middle |
| authorships[2].raw_author_name | Matthew J. Ferrari |
| authorships[2].is_corresponding | False |
| authorships[2].raw_affiliation_strings | The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA |
| authorships[3].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5100657865 |
| authorships[3].author.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4080-7274 |
| authorships[3].author.display_name | Andrew Park |
| authorships[3].countries | US |
| authorships[3].affiliations[0].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[3].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string | Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[3].affiliations[1].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[3].affiliations[1].raw_affiliation_string | Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[3].affiliations[2].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[3].affiliations[2].raw_affiliation_string | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[3].institutions[0].id | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[3].institutions[0].ror | https://ror.org/00te3t702 |
| authorships[3].institutions[0].type | education |
| authorships[3].institutions[0].lineage | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[3].institutions[0].country_code | US |
| authorships[3].institutions[0].display_name | University of Georgia |
| authorships[3].author_position | middle |
| authorships[3].raw_author_name | Andrew W. Park |
| authorships[3].is_corresponding | False |
| authorships[3].raw_affiliation_strings | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA, Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[4].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5055282911 |
| authorships[4].author.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7221-3801 |
| authorships[4].author.display_name | Pejman Rohani |
| authorships[4].countries | US |
| authorships[4].affiliations[0].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[4].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string | Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[4].affiliations[1].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[4].affiliations[1].raw_affiliation_string | Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[4].affiliations[2].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[4].affiliations[2].raw_affiliation_string | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[4].institutions[0].id | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[4].institutions[0].ror | https://ror.org/00te3t702 |
| authorships[4].institutions[0].type | education |
| authorships[4].institutions[0].lineage | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[4].institutions[0].country_code | US |
| authorships[4].institutions[0].display_name | University of Georgia |
| authorships[4].author_position | middle |
| authorships[4].raw_author_name | Pejman Rohani |
| authorships[4].is_corresponding | False |
| authorships[4].raw_affiliation_strings | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA, Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[5].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5071740877 |
| authorships[5].author.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4646-1235 |
| authorships[5].author.display_name | John M. Drake |
| authorships[5].countries | US |
| authorships[5].affiliations[0].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[5].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string | Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[5].affiliations[1].institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[5].affiliations[1].raw_affiliation_string | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| authorships[5].institutions[0].id | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[5].institutions[0].ror | https://ror.org/00te3t702 |
| authorships[5].institutions[0].type | education |
| authorships[5].institutions[0].lineage | https://openalex.org/I165733156 |
| authorships[5].institutions[0].country_code | US |
| authorships[5].institutions[0].display_name | University of Georgia |
| authorships[5].author_position | last |
| authorships[5].raw_author_name | John M. Drake |
| authorships[5].is_corresponding | False |
| authorships[5].raw_affiliation_strings | Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA |
| has_content.pdf | False |
| has_content.grobid_xml | False |
| is_paratext | False |
| open_access.is_oa | True |
| open_access.oa_url | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| open_access.oa_status | hybrid |
| open_access.any_repository_has_fulltext | False |
| created_date | 2025-10-10T00:00:00 |
| display_name | Anticipating infectious disease re-emergence and elimination: a test of early warning signals using empirically based models |
| has_fulltext | False |
| is_retracted | False |
| updated_date | 2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776 |
| primary_topic.id | https://openalex.org/T13377 |
| primary_topic.field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/23 |
| primary_topic.field.display_name | Environmental Science |
| primary_topic.score | 0.9998999834060669 |
| primary_topic.domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/3 |
| primary_topic.domain.display_name | Physical Sciences |
| primary_topic.subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/2306 |
| primary_topic.subfield.display_name | Global and Planetary Change |
| primary_topic.display_name | Ecosystem dynamics and resilience |
| related_works | https://openalex.org/W2019221308, https://openalex.org/W2366686155, https://openalex.org/W1044530532, https://openalex.org/W2383173999, https://openalex.org/W2899102479, https://openalex.org/W3125817379, https://openalex.org/W2369926976, https://openalex.org/W2381743810, https://openalex.org/W2371959060, https://openalex.org/W1983772309 |
| cited_by_count | 14 |
| counts_by_year[0].year | 2025 |
| counts_by_year[0].cited_by_count | 1 |
| counts_by_year[1].year | 2024 |
| counts_by_year[1].cited_by_count | 7 |
| counts_by_year[2].year | 2023 |
| counts_by_year[2].cited_by_count | 3 |
| counts_by_year[3].year | 2022 |
| counts_by_year[3].cited_by_count | 3 |
| locations_count | 3 |
| best_oa_location.id | doi:10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| best_oa_location.is_oa | True |
| best_oa_location.source.id | https://openalex.org/S129150467 |
| best_oa_location.source.issn | 1742-5662, 1742-5689 |
| best_oa_location.source.type | journal |
| best_oa_location.source.is_oa | False |
| best_oa_location.source.issn_l | 1742-5662 |
| best_oa_location.source.is_core | True |
| best_oa_location.source.is_in_doaj | False |
| best_oa_location.source.display_name | Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
| best_oa_location.source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/P4310319787 |
| best_oa_location.source.host_organization_name | Royal Society |
| best_oa_location.source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/P4310319787 |
| best_oa_location.source.host_organization_lineage_names | Royal Society |
| best_oa_location.license | cc-by |
| best_oa_location.pdf_url | |
| best_oa_location.version | publishedVersion |
| best_oa_location.raw_type | journal-article |
| best_oa_location.license_id | https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by |
| best_oa_location.is_accepted | True |
| best_oa_location.is_published | True |
| best_oa_location.raw_source_name | Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
| best_oa_location.landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| primary_location.id | doi:10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| primary_location.is_oa | True |
| primary_location.source.id | https://openalex.org/S129150467 |
| primary_location.source.issn | 1742-5662, 1742-5689 |
| primary_location.source.type | journal |
| primary_location.source.is_oa | False |
| primary_location.source.issn_l | 1742-5662 |
| primary_location.source.is_core | True |
| primary_location.source.is_in_doaj | False |
| primary_location.source.display_name | Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
| primary_location.source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/P4310319787 |
| primary_location.source.host_organization_name | Royal Society |
| primary_location.source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/P4310319787 |
| primary_location.source.host_organization_lineage_names | Royal Society |
| primary_location.license | cc-by |
| primary_location.pdf_url | |
| primary_location.version | publishedVersion |
| primary_location.raw_type | journal-article |
| primary_location.license_id | https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by |
| primary_location.is_accepted | True |
| primary_location.is_published | True |
| primary_location.raw_source_name | Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
| primary_location.landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0123 |
| publication_date | 2022-08-01 |
| publication_year | 2022 |
| referenced_works | https://openalex.org/W2386961963, https://openalex.org/W2674662279, https://openalex.org/W2734475807, https://openalex.org/W2155653089, https://openalex.org/W2944198657, https://openalex.org/W1967940959, https://openalex.org/W2116199452, https://openalex.org/W2153268540, https://openalex.org/W2066648930, https://openalex.org/W1994224908, https://openalex.org/W2123730929, https://openalex.org/W2533321917, https://openalex.org/W2197033418, https://openalex.org/W2725900963, https://openalex.org/W2806697564, https://openalex.org/W2753470284, https://openalex.org/W1518291454, https://openalex.org/W3027104006, https://openalex.org/W3011882609, https://openalex.org/W2136498527, https://openalex.org/W2143222716, https://openalex.org/W2951485895, https://openalex.org/W2162233069, https://openalex.org/W2110331506, https://openalex.org/W2009560557, https://openalex.org/W2017193277, https://openalex.org/W1991359665, https://openalex.org/W2171351474, https://openalex.org/W2953098951, https://openalex.org/W2801493987, https://openalex.org/W2068917310, https://openalex.org/W1993442130, https://openalex.org/W2017630658, https://openalex.org/W2277437543, https://openalex.org/W593278192, https://openalex.org/W601070381, https://openalex.org/W2560005902, https://openalex.org/W2158698691, https://openalex.org/W2093517417, https://openalex.org/W2739789502, https://openalex.org/W2128869131, https://openalex.org/W1977169708, https://openalex.org/W2166066943, https://openalex.org/W4223465979, https://openalex.org/W2059359375, https://openalex.org/W6969386650, https://openalex.org/W6959023682, https://openalex.org/W3100575704, https://openalex.org/W4289526490 |
| referenced_works_count | 49 |
| abstract_inverted_index.a | 26, 33 |
| abstract_inverted_index.We | 96 |
| abstract_inverted_index.be | 111 |
| abstract_inverted_index.in | 54, 85, 88 |
| abstract_inverted_index.is | 65 |
| abstract_inverted_index.of | 2, 8, 29, 63, 71, 82, 147 |
| abstract_inverted_index.on | 130 |
| abstract_inverted_index.to | 40, 67, 90 |
| abstract_inverted_index.we | 77 |
| abstract_inverted_index.CSD | 53, 92, 109 |
| abstract_inverted_index.EWS | 100 |
| abstract_inverted_index.and | 6, 48, 105, 136 |
| abstract_inverted_index.are | 58 |
| abstract_inverted_index.but | 60 |
| abstract_inverted_index.due | 39 |
| abstract_inverted_index.for | 13, 143 |
| abstract_inverted_index.key | 118 |
| abstract_inverted_index.the | 3, 68, 124, 141 |
| abstract_inverted_index.use | 78 |
| abstract_inverted_index.CSD, | 131 |
| abstract_inverted_index.EWS. | 95 |
| abstract_inverted_index.down | 43 |
| abstract_inverted_index.find | 97 |
| abstract_inverted_index.four | 86 |
| abstract_inverted_index.idea | 125 |
| abstract_inverted_index.save | 20 |
| abstract_inverted_index.such | 61 |
| abstract_inverted_index.than | 16 |
| abstract_inverted_index.that | 19, 25, 98, 108, 126 |
| abstract_inverted_index.with | 133 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(EWS) | 38 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Here, | 76 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Niger | 89 |
| abstract_inverted_index.These | 121 |
| abstract_inverted_index.allow | 12 |
| abstract_inverted_index.based | 129 |
| abstract_inverted_index.basis | 142 |
| abstract_inverted_index.could | 139 |
| abstract_inverted_index.cross | 117 |
| abstract_inverted_index.early | 144 |
| abstract_inverted_index.human | 9 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Recent | 22 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Timely | 0 |
| abstract_inverted_index.before | 113 |
| abstract_inverted_index.cities | 87 |
| abstract_inverted_index.detect | 91 |
| abstract_inverted_index.expert | 137 |
| abstract_inverted_index.lives. | 21 |
| abstract_inverted_index.models | 81 |
| abstract_inverted_index.rather | 15 |
| abstract_inverted_index.should | 110 |
| abstract_inverted_index.theory | 23 |
| abstract_inverted_index.concept | 64 |
| abstract_inverted_index.coupled | 132 |
| abstract_inverted_index.disease | 46, 56, 114, 148 |
| abstract_inverted_index.feature | 28 |
| abstract_inverted_index.fitted, | 79 |
| abstract_inverted_index.further | 69 |
| abstract_inverted_index.generic | 27 |
| abstract_inverted_index.measles | 83, 103 |
| abstract_inverted_index.points. | 120 |
| abstract_inverted_index.provide | 140 |
| abstract_inverted_index.scarce, | 59 |
| abstract_inverted_index.several | 99 |
| abstract_inverted_index.signals | 37, 128 |
| abstract_inverted_index.slowing | 42 |
| abstract_inverted_index.studies | 51 |
| abstract_inverted_index.support | 123 |
| abstract_inverted_index.systems | 31, 116, 146 |
| abstract_inverted_index.through | 93 |
| abstract_inverted_index.tipping | 34, 119 |
| abstract_inverted_index.warning | 36, 145 |
| abstract_inverted_index.critical | 41 |
| abstract_inverted_index.diseases | 11 |
| abstract_inverted_index.dynamics | 57 |
| abstract_inverted_index.findings | 122 |
| abstract_inverted_index.observed | 55 |
| abstract_inverted_index.outbreak | 73 |
| abstract_inverted_index.suggests | 24 |
| abstract_inverted_index.systems. | 75 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Empirical | 50 |
| abstract_inverted_index.decisions | 18 |
| abstract_inverted_index.detection | 74 |
| abstract_inverted_index.dynamical | 30 |
| abstract_inverted_index.emergence | 47 |
| abstract_inverted_index.essential | 66 |
| abstract_inverted_index.forecasts | 1 |
| abstract_inverted_index.reactive, | 17 |
| abstract_inverted_index.accurately | 101 |
| abstract_inverted_index.algorithms | 135 |
| abstract_inverted_index.anticipate | 45, 102 |
| abstract_inverted_index.detectable | 112 |
| abstract_inverted_index.emergence, | 4 |
| abstract_inverted_index.infectious | 10 |
| abstract_inverted_index.judgement, | 138 |
| abstract_inverted_index.outbreaks. | 149 |
| abstract_inverted_index.proactive, | 14 |
| abstract_inverted_index.suggesting | 107 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(CSD)—can | 44 |
| abstract_inverted_index.approaching | 32 |
| abstract_inverted_index.development | 70 |
| abstract_inverted_index.documenting | 52 |
| abstract_inverted_index.elimination | 7 |
| abstract_inverted_index.mechanistic | 80 |
| abstract_inverted_index.statistical | 94, 127 |
| abstract_inverted_index.elimination, | 106 |
| abstract_inverted_index.elimination. | 49 |
| abstract_inverted_index.re-emergence | 5, 104 |
| abstract_inverted_index.transmission | 84, 115 |
| abstract_inverted_index.demonstration | 62 |
| abstract_inverted_index.point—early | 35 |
| abstract_inverted_index.decision-support | 134 |
| abstract_inverted_index.model-independent | 72 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.max | 99 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.min | 91 |
| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5036111133 |
| countries_distinct_count | 1 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 6 |
| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I165733156, https://openalex.org/I4210135369, https://openalex.org/I4210143979 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.82906631 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | False |