Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output Article Swipe
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· 2018
· Open Access
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· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-83-2018
Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP) data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT), ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC), ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf), canopy water interception coefficient (Wint), fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR), and effective soil rooting depth (SD) characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.
Related Topics
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-83-2018
- https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/83/2018/gmd-11-83-2018.pdf
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 13
- References
- 57
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W2530313632
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
-
https://openalex.org/W2530313632Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-83-2018Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated outputWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2018Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2018-01-09Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Rahul Raj, Christiaan van der Tol, Nicholas Hamm, Alfred SteinList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-83-2018Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
-
https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/83/2018/gmd-11-83-2018.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/83/2018/gmd-11-83-2018.pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
-
Environmental science, Flux (metallurgy), Interception, Carbon cycle, Atmospheric sciences, Primary production, Calibration, Biome, Leaf area index, Mathematics, Ecosystem, Statistics, Chemistry, Ecology, Physics, Organic chemistry, BiologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
13Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
-
2025: 1, 2024: 2, 2023: 1, 2022: 1, 2021: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
-
57Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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