Beyond the single-basket mindset: a multi-gas approach to better constrain overshoot in near term warming Article Swipe
Julie Miller
,
G. Dreyfus
,
John Daniel
,
Stephen G. Willis
,
Yangyang Xu
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461
The remaining carbon budget framework tracks progress towards the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit longer-term warming to well below 2 °C, but no analogous framework exists for constraining mid-century warming. Established single-basket methods of combining gases into CO 2 -equivalents using Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) lead to ambiguity over what combination of short- and long-lived emissions reductions are needed because they obscure the distinct warming impacts of each. We investigate to what extent a multi-basket approach that separates short-lived and long-lived pollutants can better estimate the likelihood for emission pathways to meet a near-term warming goal. We develop logistic regression models to categorize IPCC emission pathways (AR6) based on whether they exceed a mid-century temperature threshold. We focus on two baskets, using CO 2 for long-lived and methane (CH 4 ) for short-lived gases. For comparison, we consider several single-basket approaches (e.g. GWP100, GWP20, GWP*). We further apply our framework to a synthetic dataset covering a broader emissions space. Across both datasets, the two-basket outperforms all single-baskets. Using an illustrative near-term goal (1.7 °C), the two-basket approach reduces the magnitude of overshoot by a factor of 7 compared with the traditional single-basket. The two-basket’s advantage is smaller with the AR6 pathways, which we attribute to the high correlation between CO 2 and CH 4 emissions and confounding effects from other pollutants. Our results indicate that the two-basket approach better constrains overshoot magnitude, particularly if future emissions deviate from the AR6 assumption of correlated CO 2 and CH 4 reductions. Our approach allows the determination of a metric value and reduction target in the context of a chosen set of scenarios and temperature threshold; the outcome is a near-term methane-specific emissions budget that can be adopted by decisionmakers in a way that is analogous and complementary to the carbon budget. Future work could consider a third basket for very short-lived pollutants.
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Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 1
- References
- 53
- Related Works
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- OpenAlex ID
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All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4400720502Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Beyond the single-basket mindset: a multi-gas approach to better constrain overshoot in near term warmingWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2024Year of publication
- Publication date
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2024-07-17Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Julie Miller, G. Dreyfus, John Daniel, Stephen G. Willis, Yangyang XuList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461Publisher landing page
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461Direct OA link when available
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Mindset, Overshoot (microwave communication), Term (time), Environmental science, Global warming, Global-warming potential, Greenhouse gas, Computer science, Climate change, Physics, Geology, Telecommunications, Quantum mechanics, Artificial intelligence, OceanographyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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1Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| primary_location.license | cc-by |
| primary_location.pdf_url | |
| primary_location.version | publishedVersion |
| primary_location.raw_type | journal-article |
| primary_location.license_id | https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by |
| primary_location.is_accepted | True |
| primary_location.is_published | True |
| primary_location.raw_source_name | Environmental Research Letters |
| primary_location.landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461 |
| publication_date | 2024-07-17 |
| publication_year | 2024 |
| referenced_works | https://openalex.org/W4210268077, https://openalex.org/W2806903974, https://openalex.org/W4295088938, https://openalex.org/W2890674027, https://openalex.org/W4323659932, https://openalex.org/W6863462330, https://openalex.org/W2971768923, https://openalex.org/W4377097776, https://openalex.org/W2996476959, https://openalex.org/W2163341548, https://openalex.org/W1982356336, https://openalex.org/W6854432769, https://openalex.org/W4389444514, https://openalex.org/W3140621608, https://openalex.org/W4281394395, https://openalex.org/W2896529898, https://openalex.org/W4379532246, https://openalex.org/W2074591771, https://openalex.org/W6948581622, https://openalex.org/W4382362038, https://openalex.org/W1993407274, https://openalex.org/W3195675621, https://openalex.org/W4388020336, https://openalex.org/W6864253033, https://openalex.org/W4214506173, https://openalex.org/W6863451118, https://openalex.org/W4377157580, https://openalex.org/W2999618362, https://openalex.org/W4377092262, https://openalex.org/W4379535946, https://openalex.org/W3197812074, https://openalex.org/W3215471456, https://openalex.org/W7011584480, https://openalex.org/W3137349729, https://openalex.org/W4390821611, https://openalex.org/W2977967981, https://openalex.org/W3123849302, https://openalex.org/W2002305510, https://openalex.org/W4283020299, https://openalex.org/W2611139682, https://openalex.org/W2046906144, https://openalex.org/W4382358731, https://openalex.org/W3126051493, https://openalex.org/W2072090057, https://openalex.org/W2156921427, https://openalex.org/W1974632704, https://openalex.org/W4387080358, https://openalex.org/W4312192954, https://openalex.org/W2755890853, https://openalex.org/W4385160319, https://openalex.org/W4394866466, https://openalex.org/W4385228868, https://openalex.org/W4393848505 |
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