CENÁRIOS DE ÍNDICES EXTREMOS DE PRECIPITAÇÃO PARA O MUNICÍPIO DE CRATEÚS, SEMIÁRIDO CEARENSE Article Swipe
Taís Rodrigues Flaubert Lima
,
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues
,
José Carlos de Araújo
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.15809/irriga.2024v29p169-177
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.15809/irriga.2024v29p169-177
CENÁRIOS DE ÍNDICES EXTREMOS DE PRECIPITAÇÃO PARA O MUNICÍPIO DE CRATEÚS, SEMIÁRIDO CEARENSE THALES BRUNO RODRIGUES LIMA 1; GLÁUBER PONTES RODRIGUES 2 E JOSÉ CARLOS DE ARAÚJO 3 1 Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal do Ceará; Brasil, [email protected]; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5331-6223 2 Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal do Ceará; Brasil, [email protected]; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7427-6104. 3Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal do Ceará; Brasil, [email protected]; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2649-151X 1 RESUMO Este estudo analisou dois índices pluviométricos (precipitação anual total e a frequência de eventos de chuva ≥100 mm) em Crateús, semiárido cearense, comparando projeções de dois Modelos Climáticos Regionais (Eta-HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5) para o clima atual com dados observados de um posto pluviométrico centenário. Também foram avaliadas as projeções dos modelos para o clima futuro sob os cenários RCP 4.5 e 8.5, em horizontes de curto (2006-2040), médio (2041-2070) e longo prazo (2071-2099). Ambos os modelos representaram bem o histórico (1976-2005), simulando sete eventos R100mm, próximos aos oito observados. As projeções apontam aumento das chuvas até cerca de 2050, seguido de queda a partir de 2060, independente do RCP. O cenário mais pessimista (HadGEM2-ES sob RCP8.5) indicou os menores índices de precipitação após 2060, com uma variação de até -19,4% em relação ao histórico. Esses resultados são fundamentais para a gestão hídrica e o planejamento de políticas públicas em uma região com escassez hídrica e vulnerabilidade climática. Keywords: Mudanças climáticas, Modelo Eta, Regiões secas. LIMA, T. B. R.; RODRIGUES, G. P.; DE ARAÚJO, J. C. SCENARIOS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION INDICES FOR THE MUNICIPALITY OF CRATEÚS, SEMI-ARID REGION OF CEARÁ 2 ABSTRACT This study analyzed total annual precipitation and the frequency of rainfall events ≥100 mm in Crateús, a semiarid region of Ceará, by comparing projections from two regional climate models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) for the current climate with observed data from a centennial rain gauge station. The models' projections were also evaluated for future climate under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios across short (2006--2040), medium (2041--2070), and long-term (2071--2099) horizons. Both models effectively represented the historical period (1976--2005), simulating seven R100 mm events that were close to the eight events observed. Projections indicate an increase in rainfall until approximately 2050, followed by a decline after 2060, regardless of the RCP scenario. The most pessimistic scenario (HadGEM2-ES under RCP8.5) projected the lowest precipitation indices after 2060, with a variation of up to -19.4% compared with the historical period. These results are crucial for water resource management and public policy planning in regions characterized by water scarcity and climate vulnerability. Keywords: Climate change, Eta model, Dry regions.
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- Type
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CENÁRIOS DE ÍNDICES EXTREMOS DE PRECIPITAÇÃO PARA O MUNICÍPIO DE CRATEÚS, SEMIÁRIDO CEARENSEWork title
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articleOpenAlex work type
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ptPrimary language
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2024Year of publication
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2024-07-26Full publication date if available
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Taís Rodrigues Flaubert Lima, Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, José Carlos de AraújoList of authors in order
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https://doi.org/10.15809/irriga.2024v29p169-177Publisher landing page
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https://revistas.fca.unesp.br/index.php/irriga/article/download/4867/3829Direct link to full text PDF
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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diamondOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://revistas.fca.unesp.br/index.php/irriga/article/download/4867/3829Direct OA link when available
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Crate, Engineering, Mechanical engineeringTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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| abstract_inverted_index.Mudanças | 223 |
| abstract_inverted_index.RODRIGUES | 15, 20 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Regionais | 93 |
| abstract_inverted_index.SCENARIOS | 240 |
| abstract_inverted_index.SEMI-ARID | 250 |
| abstract_inverted_index.avaliadas | 111 |
| abstract_inverted_index.cearense, | 86 |
| abstract_inverted_index.cenários | 122 |
| abstract_inverted_index.comparing | 278 |
| abstract_inverted_index.evaluated | 306 |
| abstract_inverted_index.frequency | 264 |
| abstract_inverted_index.horizons. | 324 |
| abstract_inverted_index.long-term | 322 |
| abstract_inverted_index.observed. | 345 |
| abstract_inverted_index.projected | 373 |
| abstract_inverted_index.próximos | 150 |
| abstract_inverted_index.públicas | 212 |
| abstract_inverted_index.relação | 196 |
| abstract_inverted_index.scenario. | 365 |
| abstract_inverted_index.scenarios | 315 |
| abstract_inverted_index.simulando | 146 |
| abstract_inverted_index.variation | 382 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Agrícola, | 32, 44, 55 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Engenharia | 31, 43, 54 |
| abstract_inverted_index.MUNICÍPIO | 8 |
| abstract_inverted_index.RODRIGUES, | 233 |
| abstract_inverted_index.SEMIÁRIDO | 11 |
| abstract_inverted_index.centennial | 297 |
| abstract_inverted_index.comparando | 87 |
| abstract_inverted_index.historical | 330, 390 |
| abstract_inverted_index.histórico | 144 |
| abstract_inverted_index.horizontes | 128 |
| abstract_inverted_index.management | 399 |
| abstract_inverted_index.observados | 103 |
| abstract_inverted_index.pessimista | 177 |
| abstract_inverted_index.políticas | 211 |
| abstract_inverted_index.regardless | 361 |
| abstract_inverted_index.resultados | 200 |
| abstract_inverted_index.semiárido | 85 |
| abstract_inverted_index.simulating | 333 |
| abstract_inverted_index.variação | 191 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(2041-2070) | 133 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(HadGEM2-ES | 178, 370 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Climáticos | 92 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Eta-MIROC5) | 96, 287 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Projections | 346 |
| abstract_inverted_index.climática. | 221 |
| abstract_inverted_index.effectively | 327 |
| abstract_inverted_index.frequência | 76 |
| abstract_inverted_index.histórico. | 198 |
| abstract_inverted_index.observados. | 153 |
| abstract_inverted_index.pessimistic | 368 |
| abstract_inverted_index.projections | 279, 303 |
| abstract_inverted_index.projeções | 88, 113, 155 |
| abstract_inverted_index.represented | 328 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(1976-2005), | 145 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(2006-2040), | 131 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(2071--2099) | 323 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(2071-2099). | 137 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Departamento | 29, 41 |
| abstract_inverted_index.MUNICIPALITY | 247 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Universidade | 33, 45, 56 |
| abstract_inverted_index.centenário. | 108 |
| abstract_inverted_index.climáticas, | 224 |
| abstract_inverted_index.fundamentais | 202 |
| abstract_inverted_index.independente | 171 |
| abstract_inverted_index.planejamento | 209 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(1976--2005), | 332 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(2006--2040), | 318 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(2041--2070), | 320 |
| abstract_inverted_index.3Departamento | 52 |
| abstract_inverted_index.PRECIPITATION | 243 |
| abstract_inverted_index.approximately | 353 |
| abstract_inverted_index.characterized | 406 |
| abstract_inverted_index.precipitation | 261, 376 |
| abstract_inverted_index.representaram | 141 |
| abstract_inverted_index.PRECIPITAÇÃO | 5 |
| abstract_inverted_index.pluviométrico | 107 |
| abstract_inverted_index.precipitação | 186 |
| abstract_inverted_index.vulnerability. | 412 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(Eta-HadGEM2-ES | 94, 285 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(precipitação | 71 |
| abstract_inverted_index.pluviométricos | 70 |
| abstract_inverted_index.vulnerabilidade | 220 |
| [email protected]; | 61 |
| [email protected]; | 38 |
| [email protected]; | 50 |
| abstract_inverted_index.https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2649-151X | 62 |
| abstract_inverted_index.https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5331-6223 | 39 |
| abstract_inverted_index.https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7427-6104. | 51 |
| cited_by_percentile_year | |
| countries_distinct_count | 0 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 3 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.33587289 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | False |