Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unravelled Article Swipe
Zebedee Nicholls
,
Malte Meinshausen
,
Jared C. Lewis
,
Chris Smith
,
Piers Forster
,
Jan S. Fuglestvedt
,
Joeri Rogelj
,
Jarmo Kikstra
,
keywan Riahi
,
Edward Byers
·
YOU?
·
· 2022
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512424.1
YOU?
·
· 2022
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512424.1
The IPCC’s scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C or 2C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C (SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor: the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1C, with projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical warming between the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and AR6, and a reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the emulators’ response to emissions and the underlying assessment.
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- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512424.1
- https://flamechallenge.authorea.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/essoar.10512424.1
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 6
- References
- 19
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4296392141
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
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https://openalex.org/W4296392141Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512424.1Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unravelledWork title
- Type
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preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2022Year of publication
- Publication date
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2022-09-20Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared C. Lewis, Chris Smith, Piers Forster, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Joeri Rogelj, Jarmo Kikstra, keywan Riahi, Edward ByersList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512424.1Publisher landing page
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https://flamechallenge.authorea.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/essoar.10512424.1Direct link to full text PDF
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://flamechallenge.authorea.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/essoar.10512424.1Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Global warming, Environmental science, Climatology, Consistency (knowledge bases), Limiting, Greenhouse gas, Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, Computer science, Engineering, Ecology, Geology, Mechanical engineering, Biology, Artificial intelligenceTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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6Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2022: 6Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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