BMC Medical Research Methodology • Vol 24 • No 1
Comparing methods for risk prediction of multicategory outcomes: dichotomized logistic regression vs. multinomial logit regression
October 2024 • Lei Li, Matthew A. Rysavy, Georgiy Bobashev, Abhik Das
Estimating multiple logistic regression models of dichotomized outcomes may result in poorly calibrated predictions for an outcome with multiple ordinal categories. Multinomial continuation-ratio logit regression produces better calibrated predictions, constrains the sum of predicted probabilities to 100%, and has the advantages of simplicity in model interpretation, flexibility to include outcome category-specific predictors and random-effect terms for patient heterogeneity by hospital. It also accounts for mutua…