Complementary use of multi-model climate ensemble and Bayesian Model Averaging for projecting river hydrology in the Himalaya Article Swipe
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· 2022
· Open Access
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· DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1850139/v1
This study aims to predictthe hydrology of the Jhelum basin under changing climatic scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Six Global Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled for reliable climatic projections over the 21st century (2020–2080). To reduce the uncertainty associated with climate projections, multi-model ensemble estimations were refined using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The assessment reveals that compared tothe baseline (1980–2010) values, the annual mean maximum temperature in the basin will rise by 0.41–2.31°C and 0.63–4.82°C and the mean minimum temperature will increase by 1.39–2.37°C and 2.14–4.34°C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5respectively. While as, precipitation is expected to decreases by 7.2–4.57% and 4.75–2.4 7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 correspondingly. BMA ensemble projections were used inthe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)to simulate the future hydrological scenarios of the drainage basin. With the changing climate, the discharge of rivers in the Jhelum basin is expected to witness reductions by about 23–37% for RCP4.5 and 19–46% for RCP8.5. Moreover, the water yield of the basin may also exhibit decreases of 17–25% for RCP4.5 and 18–42% for RCP8.5. The projected scenarios are likely to cause water stress, affect the availability of water for diverse uses, and trigger transboundary water sharing related conflicts. The impact of climate change on discharge demands early attention for the development of mitigation and adaptive measures at the regional level and beyond.
Related Topics
- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1850139/v1
- https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1850139/latest.pdf
- OA Status
- green
- References
- 54
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4286560419
Raw OpenAlex JSON
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https://openalex.org/W4286560419Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1850139/v1Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Complementary use of multi-model climate ensemble and Bayesian Model Averaging for projecting river hydrology in the HimalayaWork title
- Type
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preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2022Year of publication
- Publication date
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2022-07-22Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Shafkat Ahsan, M. Sultan Bhat, Akhtar Alam, Hakim Farooq, Hilal Ahmad ShiekhList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1850139/v1Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1850139/latest.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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greenOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1850139/latest.pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
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Representative Concentration Pathways, Environmental science, Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Precipitation, Structural basin, Climate change, Drainage basin, Hydrology (agriculture), SWAT model, Climate model, Climatology, Geology, Geography, Streamflow, Meteorology, Paleontology, Geotechnical engineering, Oceanography, CartographyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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0Total citation count in OpenAlex
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54Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| primary_location.pdf_url | https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1850139/latest.pdf |
| primary_location.version | acceptedVersion |
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| primary_location.landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1850139/v1 |
| publication_date | 2022-07-22 |
| publication_year | 2022 |
| referenced_works | https://openalex.org/W2128003492, https://openalex.org/W2011468956, https://openalex.org/W2626812701, https://openalex.org/W2791636395, https://openalex.org/W3042750449, https://openalex.org/W2782549757, https://openalex.org/W2103497845, https://openalex.org/W2894265279, https://openalex.org/W2950827585, https://openalex.org/W2991821872, https://openalex.org/W2085907528, https://openalex.org/W2621841740, https://openalex.org/W2792079102, https://openalex.org/W2081580680, https://openalex.org/W2320145997, https://openalex.org/W1996478169, https://openalex.org/W2904112954, https://openalex.org/W2003696872, https://openalex.org/W2020301772, https://openalex.org/W2075793519, https://openalex.org/W2161710604, https://openalex.org/W2599658939, https://openalex.org/W2089513747, https://openalex.org/W2143373999, https://openalex.org/W2908335074, https://openalex.org/W1980346899, https://openalex.org/W2942498410, https://openalex.org/W2137446795, https://openalex.org/W2058998445, https://openalex.org/W2335671719, https://openalex.org/W2038899756, https://openalex.org/W2100320542, https://openalex.org/W2145020427, https://openalex.org/W2588426264, https://openalex.org/W2977431786, https://openalex.org/W2609394187, https://openalex.org/W1820568138, https://openalex.org/W2119167300, https://openalex.org/W1998360908, https://openalex.org/W3112951125, https://openalex.org/W3122906347, https://openalex.org/W2582241554, https://openalex.org/W1985479415, https://openalex.org/W2017559255, https://openalex.org/W3157058112, https://openalex.org/W1157720001, https://openalex.org/W2075966418, https://openalex.org/W1752626349, https://openalex.org/W2328889916, https://openalex.org/W2588122153, https://openalex.org/W2531390983, https://openalex.org/W3136362817, https://openalex.org/W2033904036, https://openalex.org/W2115390542 |
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| abstract_inverted_index.The | 55, 176, 200 |
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