Constraining Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Using Typical Synoptic Patterns Article Swipe
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· 2025
· Open Access
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· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2650
· OA: W4408442283
The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) suffers from extreme precipitation (EP) during summer, which has a huge impact on human society and ecosystem. However, the large spreads among climate models hinder their application in future risk assessment. In this work, four typical synoptic patterns (SPs) triggering EP over MLYR are identified based on the clustering algorithm. And we found a significant linear correlation between the CMIP6 (sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models’ ability to reproduce the observed typical SPs in present-day climate and the projected future changes of EP over MLYR. Then we proposed an emergent constraint method for EP projections based on this linear correlation and the observed SPs. Using this method, the model spread is evidently narrowed, which increases the credibility of projected future EP changes.
