Deterministic and probabilistic regularities underlying risky choices are acquired in a changing decision context Article Swipe
Andrea Kóbor
,
Eszter Tóth-Fáber
,
Zsófia Kardos
,
Ádám Takács
,
Noémi Éltető
,
Karolina Janacsek
,
Valéria Csépe
,
Dezső Németh
·
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27642-z
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27642-z
Predictions supporting risky decisions could become unreliable when outcome probabilities temporarily change, making adaptation more challenging. Therefore, this study investigated whether sensitivity to the temporal structure in outcome probabilities can develop and remain persistent in a changing decision environment. In a variant of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task with 90 balloons, outcomes (rewards or balloon bursts) were predictable in the task’s first and final 30 balloons and unpredictable in the middle 30 balloons. The temporal regularity underlying the predictable outcomes differed across three experimental conditions. In the deterministic condition, a repeating three-element sequence dictated the maximum number of pumps before a balloon burst. In the probabilistic condition, a single probabilistic regularity ensured that burst probability increased as a function of pumps. In the hybrid condition, a repeating sequence of three different probabilistic regularities increased burst probabilities. In every condition, the regularity was absent in the middle 30 balloons. Participants were not informed about the presence or absence of the regularity. Sensitivity to both the deterministic and hybrid regularities emerged and influenced risk taking. Unpredictable outcomes of the middle phase did not deteriorate this sensitivity. In conclusion, humans can adapt their risky choices in a changing decision environment by exploiting the statistical structure that controls how the environment changes.
Related Topics
Concepts
Probabilistic logic
Task (project management)
Sensitivity (control systems)
Context (archaeology)
Computer science
Outcome (game theory)
Adaptation (eye)
Sequence (biology)
Function (biology)
Statistical model
Machine learning
Artificial intelligence
Psychology
Mathematics
Biology
Mathematical economics
Engineering
Electronic engineering
Paleontology
Genetics
Evolutionary biology
Neuroscience
Systems engineering
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27642-z
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-27642-z.pdf
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 3
- References
- 78
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4317582087
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4317582087Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27642-zDigital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Deterministic and probabilistic regularities underlying risky choices are acquired in a changing decision contextWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2023Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2023-01-20Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Andrea Kóbor, Eszter Tóth-Fáber, Zsófia Kardos, Ádám Takács, Noémi Éltető, Karolina Janacsek, Valéria Csépe, Dezső NémethList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27642-zPublisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-27642-z.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-27642-z.pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
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Probabilistic logic, Task (project management), Sensitivity (control systems), Context (archaeology), Computer science, Outcome (game theory), Adaptation (eye), Sequence (biology), Function (biology), Statistical model, Machine learning, Artificial intelligence, Psychology, Mathematics, Biology, Mathematical economics, Engineering, Electronic engineering, Paleontology, Genetics, Evolutionary biology, Neuroscience, Systems engineeringTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
3Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
-
2025: 2, 2024: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
-
78Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| publication_date | 2023-01-20 |
| publication_year | 2023 |
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