Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Model for Prediction of Severe Outcomes in Suspected COVID-19 Infection Article Swipe

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Buch , Aoxiao Zhong , Li X , Rockenbach Mabc , Wu Depei , Ren H , Jiahui Guan , Andrew S. Liteplo , Sayon Dutta , Ittai Dayan , Li Q · YOU? · · 2021 · Open Access · · DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2103.11269

COVID-19 patient triaging with predictive outcome of the patients upon first present to emergency department (ED) is crucial for improving patient prognosis, as well as better hospital resources management and cross-infection control. We trained a deep feature fusion model to predict patient outcomes, where the model inputs were EHR data including demographic information, co-morbidities, vital signs and laboratory measurements, plus patient's CXR images. The model output was patient outcomes defined as the most insensitive oxygen therapy required. For patients without CXR images, we employed Random Forest method for the prediction. Predictive risk scores for COVID-19 severe outcomes ("CO-RISK" score) were derived from model output and evaluated on the testing dataset, as well as compared to human performance. The study's dataset (the "MGB COVID Cohort") was constructed from all patients presenting to the Mass General Brigham (MGB) healthcare system from March 1st to June 1st, 2020. ED visits with incomplete or erroneous data were excluded. Patients with no test order for COVID or confirmed negative test results were excluded. Patients under the age of 15 were also excluded. Finally, electronic health record (EHR) data from a total of 11060 COVID-19 confirmed or suspected patients were used in this study. Chest X-ray (CXR) images were also collected from each patient if available. Results show that CO-RISK score achieved area under the Curve (AUC) of predicting MV/death (i.e. severe outcomes) in 24 hours of 0.95, and 0.92 in 72 hours on the testing dataset. The model shows superior performance to the commonly used risk scores in ED (CURB-65 and MEWS). Comparing with physician's decisions, CO-RISK score has demonstrated superior performance to human in making ICU/floor decisions.

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preprint

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en

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11269

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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.11269

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green

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4

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20

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10

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https://openalex.org/W3137711675

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https://openalex.org/W3137711675

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2103.11269

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Title

Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Model for Prediction of Severe Outcomes in Suspected COVID-19 Infection

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preprint

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en

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Publication year

2021

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2021-03-21

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Buch, Aoxiao Zhong, Li X, Rockenbach Mabc, Wu Depei, Ren H, Jiahui Guan, Andrew S. Liteplo, Sayon Dutta, Ittai Dayan, Li Q

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https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11269

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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.11269

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green

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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.11269

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Concepts

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Virology, Model validation, Deep learning, Artificial intelligence, Medicine, Computer science, Data science, Internal medicine, Outbreak, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Disease

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Cited by

4

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2025: 1, 2022: 2, 2021: 1

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20

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10

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