Does Reasoning Emerge? Examining the Probabilities of Causation in Large Language Models Article Swipe
Javier González
,
Aditya V. Nori
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2408.08210
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2408.08210
Recent advances in AI have been significantly driven by the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to solve complex problems in ways that resemble human thinking. However, there is an ongoing debate about the extent to which LLMs are capable of actual reasoning. Central to this debate are two key probabilistic concepts that are essential for connecting causes to their effects: the probability of necessity (PN) and the probability of sufficiency (PS). This paper introduces a framework that is both theoretical and practical, aimed at assessing how effectively LLMs are able to replicate real-world reasoning mechanisms using these probabilistic measures. By viewing LLMs as abstract machines that process information through a natural language interface, we examine the conditions under which it is possible to compute suitable approximations of PN and PS. Our research marks an important step towards gaining a deeper understanding of when LLMs are capable of reasoning, as illustrated by a series of math examples.
Related Topics
Concepts
Metadata
- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- http://arxiv.org/abs/2408.08210
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08210
- OA Status
- green
- Cited By
- 1
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4406024020
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
-
https://openalex.org/W4406024020Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2408.08210Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Does Reasoning Emerge? Examining the Probabilities of Causation in Large Language ModelsWork title
- Type
-
preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2024Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2024-08-15Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Javier González, Aditya V. NoriList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.08210Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
-
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08210Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
greenOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08210Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
-
Causation, Computer science, Cognitive science, Cognitive psychology, Psychology, Epistemology, PhilosophyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
1Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
-
2025: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
Full payload
| id | https://openalex.org/W4406024020 |
|---|---|
| doi | https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2408.08210 |
| ids.doi | https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2408.08210 |
| ids.openalex | https://openalex.org/W4406024020 |
| fwci | |
| type | preprint |
| title | Does Reasoning Emerge? Examining the Probabilities of Causation in Large Language Models |
| biblio.issue | |
| biblio.volume | |
| biblio.last_page | |
| biblio.first_page | |
| topics[0].id | https://openalex.org/T10181 |
| topics[0].field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/17 |
| topics[0].field.display_name | Computer Science |
| topics[0].score | 0.9520999789237976 |
| topics[0].domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/3 |
| topics[0].domain.display_name | Physical Sciences |
| topics[0].subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/1702 |
| topics[0].subfield.display_name | Artificial Intelligence |
| topics[0].display_name | Natural Language Processing Techniques |
| is_xpac | False |
| apc_list | |
| apc_paid | |
| concepts[0].id | https://openalex.org/C166151441 |
| concepts[0].level | 2 |
| concepts[0].score | 0.8907085061073303 |
| concepts[0].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4923601 |
| concepts[0].display_name | Causation |
| concepts[1].id | https://openalex.org/C41008148 |
| concepts[1].level | 0 |
| concepts[1].score | 0.4310241937637329 |
| concepts[1].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198 |
| concepts[1].display_name | Computer science |
| concepts[2].id | https://openalex.org/C188147891 |
| concepts[2].level | 1 |
| concepts[2].score | 0.41383984684944153 |
| concepts[2].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q147638 |
| concepts[2].display_name | Cognitive science |
| concepts[3].id | https://openalex.org/C180747234 |
| concepts[3].level | 1 |
| concepts[3].score | 0.3881756067276001 |
| concepts[3].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373 |
| concepts[3].display_name | Cognitive psychology |
| concepts[4].id | https://openalex.org/C15744967 |
| concepts[4].level | 0 |
| concepts[4].score | 0.38349902629852295 |
| concepts[4].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418 |
| concepts[4].display_name | Psychology |
| concepts[5].id | https://openalex.org/C111472728 |
| concepts[5].level | 1 |
| concepts[5].score | 0.35789865255355835 |
| concepts[5].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471 |
| concepts[5].display_name | Epistemology |
| concepts[6].id | https://openalex.org/C138885662 |
| concepts[6].level | 0 |
| concepts[6].score | 0.1756764054298401 |
| concepts[6].wikidata | https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891 |
| concepts[6].display_name | Philosophy |
| keywords[0].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/causation |
| keywords[0].score | 0.8907085061073303 |
| keywords[0].display_name | Causation |
| keywords[1].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science |
| keywords[1].score | 0.4310241937637329 |
| keywords[1].display_name | Computer science |
| keywords[2].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-science |
| keywords[2].score | 0.41383984684944153 |
| keywords[2].display_name | Cognitive science |
| keywords[3].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-psychology |
| keywords[3].score | 0.3881756067276001 |
| keywords[3].display_name | Cognitive psychology |
| keywords[4].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/psychology |
| keywords[4].score | 0.38349902629852295 |
| keywords[4].display_name | Psychology |
| keywords[5].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/epistemology |
| keywords[5].score | 0.35789865255355835 |
| keywords[5].display_name | Epistemology |
| keywords[6].id | https://openalex.org/keywords/philosophy |
| keywords[6].score | 0.1756764054298401 |
| keywords[6].display_name | Philosophy |
| language | en |
| locations[0].id | pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2408.08210 |
| locations[0].is_oa | True |
| locations[0].source.id | https://openalex.org/S4306400194 |
| locations[0].source.issn | |
| locations[0].source.type | repository |
| locations[0].source.is_oa | True |
| locations[0].source.issn_l | |
| locations[0].source.is_core | False |
| locations[0].source.is_in_doaj | False |
| locations[0].source.display_name | arXiv (Cornell University) |
| locations[0].source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/I205783295 |
| locations[0].source.host_organization_name | Cornell University |
| locations[0].source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/I205783295 |
| locations[0].license | |
| locations[0].pdf_url | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08210 |
| locations[0].version | submittedVersion |
| locations[0].raw_type | text |
| locations[0].license_id | |
| locations[0].is_accepted | False |
| locations[0].is_published | False |
| locations[0].raw_source_name | |
| locations[0].landing_page_url | http://arxiv.org/abs/2408.08210 |
| locations[1].id | doi:10.48550/arxiv.2408.08210 |
| locations[1].is_oa | True |
| locations[1].source.id | https://openalex.org/S4306400194 |
| locations[1].source.issn | |
| locations[1].source.type | repository |
| locations[1].source.is_oa | True |
| locations[1].source.issn_l | |
| locations[1].source.is_core | False |
| locations[1].source.is_in_doaj | False |
| locations[1].source.display_name | arXiv (Cornell University) |
| locations[1].source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/I205783295 |
| locations[1].source.host_organization_name | Cornell University |
| locations[1].source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/I205783295 |
| locations[1].license | cc-by |
| locations[1].pdf_url | |
| locations[1].version | |
| locations[1].raw_type | article |
| locations[1].license_id | https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by |
| locations[1].is_accepted | False |
| locations[1].is_published | |
| locations[1].raw_source_name | |
| locations[1].landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2408.08210 |
| indexed_in | arxiv, datacite |
| authorships[0].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5019550860 |
| authorships[0].author.orcid | |
| authorships[0].author.display_name | Javier González |
| authorships[0].author_position | first |
| authorships[0].raw_author_name | González, Javier |
| authorships[0].is_corresponding | False |
| authorships[1].author.id | https://openalex.org/A5111937381 |
| authorships[1].author.orcid | |
| authorships[1].author.display_name | Aditya V. Nori |
| authorships[1].author_position | last |
| authorships[1].raw_author_name | Nori, Aditya V. |
| authorships[1].is_corresponding | False |
| has_content.pdf | False |
| has_content.grobid_xml | False |
| is_paratext | False |
| open_access.is_oa | True |
| open_access.oa_url | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08210 |
| open_access.oa_status | green |
| open_access.any_repository_has_fulltext | False |
| created_date | 2025-01-03T00:00:00 |
| display_name | Does Reasoning Emerge? Examining the Probabilities of Causation in Large Language Models |
| has_fulltext | False |
| is_retracted | False |
| updated_date | 2025-11-06T06:51:31.235846 |
| primary_topic.id | https://openalex.org/T10181 |
| primary_topic.field.id | https://openalex.org/fields/17 |
| primary_topic.field.display_name | Computer Science |
| primary_topic.score | 0.9520999789237976 |
| primary_topic.domain.id | https://openalex.org/domains/3 |
| primary_topic.domain.display_name | Physical Sciences |
| primary_topic.subfield.id | https://openalex.org/subfields/1702 |
| primary_topic.subfield.display_name | Artificial Intelligence |
| primary_topic.display_name | Natural Language Processing Techniques |
| related_works | https://openalex.org/W4391375266, https://openalex.org/W2748952813, https://openalex.org/W2372620761, https://openalex.org/W180255526, https://openalex.org/W2915678288, https://openalex.org/W133423432, https://openalex.org/W1937721613, https://openalex.org/W2614320617, https://openalex.org/W2497053598, https://openalex.org/W2476545830 |
| cited_by_count | 1 |
| counts_by_year[0].year | 2025 |
| counts_by_year[0].cited_by_count | 1 |
| locations_count | 2 |
| best_oa_location.id | pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2408.08210 |
| best_oa_location.is_oa | True |
| best_oa_location.source.id | https://openalex.org/S4306400194 |
| best_oa_location.source.issn | |
| best_oa_location.source.type | repository |
| best_oa_location.source.is_oa | True |
| best_oa_location.source.issn_l | |
| best_oa_location.source.is_core | False |
| best_oa_location.source.is_in_doaj | False |
| best_oa_location.source.display_name | arXiv (Cornell University) |
| best_oa_location.source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/I205783295 |
| best_oa_location.source.host_organization_name | Cornell University |
| best_oa_location.source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/I205783295 |
| best_oa_location.license | |
| best_oa_location.pdf_url | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08210 |
| best_oa_location.version | submittedVersion |
| best_oa_location.raw_type | text |
| best_oa_location.license_id | |
| best_oa_location.is_accepted | False |
| best_oa_location.is_published | False |
| best_oa_location.raw_source_name | |
| best_oa_location.landing_page_url | http://arxiv.org/abs/2408.08210 |
| primary_location.id | pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2408.08210 |
| primary_location.is_oa | True |
| primary_location.source.id | https://openalex.org/S4306400194 |
| primary_location.source.issn | |
| primary_location.source.type | repository |
| primary_location.source.is_oa | True |
| primary_location.source.issn_l | |
| primary_location.source.is_core | False |
| primary_location.source.is_in_doaj | False |
| primary_location.source.display_name | arXiv (Cornell University) |
| primary_location.source.host_organization | https://openalex.org/I205783295 |
| primary_location.source.host_organization_name | Cornell University |
| primary_location.source.host_organization_lineage | https://openalex.org/I205783295 |
| primary_location.license | |
| primary_location.pdf_url | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08210 |
| primary_location.version | submittedVersion |
| primary_location.raw_type | text |
| primary_location.license_id | |
| primary_location.is_accepted | False |
| primary_location.is_published | False |
| primary_location.raw_source_name | |
| primary_location.landing_page_url | http://arxiv.org/abs/2408.08210 |
| publication_date | 2024-08-15 |
| publication_year | 2024 |
| referenced_works_count | 0 |
| abstract_inverted_index.a | 75, 110, 139, 152 |
| abstract_inverted_index.AI | 3 |
| abstract_inverted_index.By | 100 |
| abstract_inverted_index.PN | 128 |
| abstract_inverted_index.an | 29, 134 |
| abstract_inverted_index.as | 103, 149 |
| abstract_inverted_index.at | 84 |
| abstract_inverted_index.by | 8, 151 |
| abstract_inverted_index.in | 2, 20 |
| abstract_inverted_index.is | 28, 78, 121 |
| abstract_inverted_index.it | 120 |
| abstract_inverted_index.of | 11, 40, 63, 69, 127, 142, 147, 154 |
| abstract_inverted_index.to | 16, 35, 44, 58, 91, 123 |
| abstract_inverted_index.we | 114 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Our | 131 |
| abstract_inverted_index.PS. | 130 |
| abstract_inverted_index.and | 66, 81, 129 |
| abstract_inverted_index.are | 38, 47, 53, 89, 145 |
| abstract_inverted_index.for | 55 |
| abstract_inverted_index.how | 86 |
| abstract_inverted_index.key | 49 |
| abstract_inverted_index.the | 9, 33, 61, 67, 116 |
| abstract_inverted_index.two | 48 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(PN) | 65 |
| abstract_inverted_index.LLMs | 37, 88, 102, 144 |
| abstract_inverted_index.This | 72 |
| abstract_inverted_index.able | 90 |
| abstract_inverted_index.been | 5 |
| abstract_inverted_index.both | 79 |
| abstract_inverted_index.have | 4 |
| abstract_inverted_index.math | 155 |
| abstract_inverted_index.step | 136 |
| abstract_inverted_index.that | 22, 52, 77, 106 |
| abstract_inverted_index.this | 45 |
| abstract_inverted_index.ways | 21 |
| abstract_inverted_index.when | 143 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(PS). | 71 |
| abstract_inverted_index.about | 32 |
| abstract_inverted_index.aimed | 83 |
| abstract_inverted_index.human | 24 |
| abstract_inverted_index.large | 12 |
| abstract_inverted_index.marks | 133 |
| abstract_inverted_index.paper | 73 |
| abstract_inverted_index.solve | 17 |
| abstract_inverted_index.their | 59 |
| abstract_inverted_index.there | 27 |
| abstract_inverted_index.these | 97 |
| abstract_inverted_index.under | 118 |
| abstract_inverted_index.using | 96 |
| abstract_inverted_index.which | 36, 119 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(LLMs) | 15 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Recent | 0 |
| abstract_inverted_index.actual | 41 |
| abstract_inverted_index.causes | 57 |
| abstract_inverted_index.debate | 31, 46 |
| abstract_inverted_index.deeper | 140 |
| abstract_inverted_index.driven | 7 |
| abstract_inverted_index.extent | 34 |
| abstract_inverted_index.models | 14 |
| abstract_inverted_index.series | 153 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Central | 43 |
| abstract_inverted_index.capable | 39, 146 |
| abstract_inverted_index.complex | 18 |
| abstract_inverted_index.compute | 124 |
| abstract_inverted_index.examine | 115 |
| abstract_inverted_index.gaining | 138 |
| abstract_inverted_index.natural | 111 |
| abstract_inverted_index.ongoing | 30 |
| abstract_inverted_index.process | 107 |
| abstract_inverted_index.through | 109 |
| abstract_inverted_index.towards | 137 |
| abstract_inverted_index.viewing | 101 |
| abstract_inverted_index.However, | 26 |
| abstract_inverted_index.abstract | 104 |
| abstract_inverted_index.advances | 1 |
| abstract_inverted_index.concepts | 51 |
| abstract_inverted_index.effects: | 60 |
| abstract_inverted_index.language | 13, 112 |
| abstract_inverted_index.machines | 105 |
| abstract_inverted_index.possible | 122 |
| abstract_inverted_index.problems | 19 |
| abstract_inverted_index.research | 132 |
| abstract_inverted_index.resemble | 23 |
| abstract_inverted_index.suitable | 125 |
| abstract_inverted_index.assessing | 85 |
| abstract_inverted_index.essential | 54 |
| abstract_inverted_index.examples. | 156 |
| abstract_inverted_index.framework | 76 |
| abstract_inverted_index.important | 135 |
| abstract_inverted_index.measures. | 99 |
| abstract_inverted_index.necessity | 64 |
| abstract_inverted_index.reasoning | 94 |
| abstract_inverted_index.replicate | 92 |
| abstract_inverted_index.thinking. | 25 |
| abstract_inverted_index.conditions | 117 |
| abstract_inverted_index.connecting | 56 |
| abstract_inverted_index.interface, | 113 |
| abstract_inverted_index.introduces | 74 |
| abstract_inverted_index.mechanisms | 95 |
| abstract_inverted_index.practical, | 82 |
| abstract_inverted_index.real-world | 93 |
| abstract_inverted_index.reasoning, | 148 |
| abstract_inverted_index.reasoning. | 42 |
| abstract_inverted_index.effectively | 87 |
| abstract_inverted_index.illustrated | 150 |
| abstract_inverted_index.information | 108 |
| abstract_inverted_index.probability | 62, 68 |
| abstract_inverted_index.sufficiency | 70 |
| abstract_inverted_index.theoretical | 80 |
| abstract_inverted_index.capabilities | 10 |
| abstract_inverted_index.probabilistic | 50, 98 |
| abstract_inverted_index.significantly | 6 |
| abstract_inverted_index.understanding | 141 |
| abstract_inverted_index.approximations | 126 |
| cited_by_percentile_year | |
| countries_distinct_count | 0 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 2 |
| citation_normalized_percentile |