Downward Counterfactual Search for Extreme Events Article Swipe
An event catalog is a foundation of the risk analysis for any natural hazard. Especially if the catalog is comparatively brief relative to the return periods of possible events, it may well be deficient in extreme events that are of special importance to risk stakeholders. It is common practice for quantitative risk analysts to construct ensembles of future scenarios that include extreme events that are not in the event catalog. But past poor experience for many hazards shows that these ensembles are still liable to be missing crucial unknown events. An explicit systematic procedure is proposed here for searching for these key missing events. This procedure starts with the historical catalog events, and explores alternative realizations of them where things turned for the worse. These are termed downward counterfactuals. By repeatedly exploring ways in which the event loss might have been incrementally worse, missing events can be discovered that may take risk analysts, and risk stakeholders, by surprise. The downward counterfactual search for extreme events is illustrated with examples drawn from a variety of natural hazards. Attention is drawn to the problem of overfitting to the historical record, and the value of stochastic modeling of the past.
Related Topics
Concepts
Counterfactual thinking
Event (particle physics)
Surprise
Overfitting
Counterfactual conditional
Construct (python library)
Rare events
Hazard
Computer science
Natural hazard
Risk analysis (engineering)
Actuarial science
Data science
Econometrics
Economics
Geography
Artificial intelligence
Psychology
Business
Statistics
Mathematics
Organic chemistry
Meteorology
Physics
Social psychology
Programming language
Artificial neural network
Chemistry
Quantum mechanics
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00340
- https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00340/pdf
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 91
- References
- 36
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W2996662678
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
-
https://openalex.org/W2996662678Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00340Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Downward Counterfactual Search for Extreme EventsWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2019Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2019-12-19Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Gordon WooList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00340Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
-
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00340/pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00340/pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
-
Counterfactual thinking, Event (particle physics), Surprise, Overfitting, Counterfactual conditional, Construct (python library), Rare events, Hazard, Computer science, Natural hazard, Risk analysis (engineering), Actuarial science, Data science, Econometrics, Economics, Geography, Artificial intelligence, Psychology, Business, Statistics, Mathematics, Organic chemistry, Meteorology, Physics, Social psychology, Programming language, Artificial neural network, Chemistry, Quantum mechanicsTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
91Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
-
2025: 12, 2024: 25, 2023: 19, 2022: 13, 2021: 14Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
-
36Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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