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arXiv (Cornell University)
Efficient Bayesian model selection for coupled hidden Markov models with application to infectious diseases
May 2021 • Jake Carson, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Peter Neal, Simon E. F. Spencer
Performing model selection for coupled hidden Markov models (CHMMs) is highly challenging, owing to the large dimension of the hidden state process. Whilst in principle the hidden state process can be marginalized out via forward filtering, in practice the computational cost of doing so increases exponentially with the number of coupled Markov chains, making this approach infeasible in most applications. Monte Carlo methods can be utilized, but despite many remarkable developments in model selection methodology, g…
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