Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds Article Swipe
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6090338
Anyone who has tried lighting a campfire on a windy day can appreciate how difficult it could be. However, despite real-life experience and despite laboratory experiments which have demonstrated that fire ignition risk dramatically decreases beyond a certain wind threshold, current fire weather indices (FWIs) do not take this effect into account and assume a monotonic relation between wind velocity and ignition risk. In this paper, we perform a global analysis which empirically quantifies the probability of ignition as a function of wind velocity. Using both traditional methods (a logistic regression and a generalized additive model) and machine learning techniques, we find that beyond a threshold of approximately 3–4 m/s, the ignition risk substantially decreases. The effect holds when accounting for additional factors such as temperature and relative humidity. We recommend updating FWIs to account for this issue.
Related Topics
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6090338
- https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/9/338/pdf?version=1693296915
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 1
- References
- 33
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4386256566
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4386256566Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6090338Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong WindsWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2023Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2023-08-29Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Assaf Shmuel, Eyal HeifetzList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6090338Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
-
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/9/338/pdf?version=1693296915Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/6/9/338/pdf?version=1693296915Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
-
Ignition system, Meteorology, Wind speed, Environmental science, Logistic regression, Function (biology), Relative humidity, Econometrics, Atmospheric sciences, Statistics, Geography, Mathematics, Engineering, Geology, Aerospace engineering, Biology, Evolutionary biologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
1Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2024: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
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33Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5037469336 |
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| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I16391192 |
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