Ensemble generation of regional ocean physics and biogeochemical model uncertainties, empirical consistency and suitability for probabilistic forecasting Article Swipe
Vassilios Vervatis
,
Pierre De Mey-Frémaux
,
B. Lemieux-Dudon
,
John Karagiorgos
,
Nadia Ayoub
,
Sarantis Sofianos
·
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14154
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14154
<div><span>The study builds upon two Copernicus marine projects, SCRUM and SCRUM2, focusing on ensemble forecasting operational capabilities to better serve coastal downscaling. Both projects provided coupled physics-biogeochemistry ensemble generation approaches, tools to strengthen CMEMS in the areas of ocean uncertainty modelling, empirical ensemble consistency and data assimilation, including methods to assess the suitability of ensembles for probabilistic forecasting. The study is conducted by performing short- to medium-range ensembles in the Bay of Biscay, a subdomain of the IBI-MFC. Ensembles were generated using ocean stochastic modelling and incorporating an atmospheric ensemble. Sentinel 3A data from CMEMS TACs and arrays were considered for empirical consistency, using innovation statistics and approaches taking into account correlated observations. Finally, several properties of ensembles were estimated as components of known probabilistic skill scores: the Brier score (BS), and the CRPS. This was done for pseudo-observations (Quasi-Reliable test-bed) and for real verifying observations in a coastal upwelling test case.</span></div>
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- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14154
- OA Status
- gold
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W3180771686
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
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https://openalex.org/W3180771686Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14154Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Ensemble generation of regional ocean physics and biogeochemical model uncertainties, empirical consistency and suitability for probabilistic forecastingWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2021Year of publication
- Publication date
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2021-03-04Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Vassilios Vervatis, Pierre De Mey-Frémaux, B. Lemieux-Dudon, John Karagiorgos, Nadia Ayoub, Sarantis SofianosList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14154Publisher landing page
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14154Direct OA link when available
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Probabilistic logic, Downscaling, Consistency (knowledge bases), Ensemble forecasting, Computer science, Probabilistic forecasting, Data assimilation, Environmental science, Meteorology, Econometrics, Climatology, Mathematics, Machine learning, Geography, Artificial intelligence, Geology, PrecipitationTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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0Total citation count in OpenAlex
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| publication_date | 2021-03-04 |
| publication_year | 2021 |
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