Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe: Comparison of Estimates Obtained Using Different Methods in Twenty Sites and Development of a National-Level Estimate Article Swipe

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E. Fearon , Sungai T. Chabata , Sitholubuhle Magutshwa , Tendayi Ndori‐Mharadze , Sithembile Musemburi , Henry Chidawanyika , Absolom Masendeke , Sue Napierala , Elizabeth Gonese , Amy Herman Roloff , Beth A. Tippett Barr , Peter H. Kilmarx , Ramona Wong-Gruenwald , Samson Chidiya , Mutsa Mhangara , Dagmar Hanisch , Jessie K. Edwards , Brian Rice , Isaac Taramusi , T. Mbengeranwa , Portia Manangazira , Owen Mugurungi , James Hargreaves , Frances M. Cowan ·

YOU? · · 2023 · Open Access · · DOI: https://doi.org/10.17615/jdqr-zq04

BACKGROUND: National-level population size estimates (PSEs) for hidden populations are required for HIV programming and modelling. Various estimation methods are available at the site-level, but it remains unclear which are optimal and how best to obtain national-level estimates.Zimbabwe. METHODS: Using 2015-2017 data from respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys among female sex workers (FSW) aged 18+ years, mappings, and program records, we calculated PSEs for each of the 20 sites across Zimbabwe, using up to 3 methods per site (service and unique object multipliers, census, and capture-recapture). We compared estimates from different methods, and calculated site medians. We estimated prevalence of sex work at each site using census data available on the number of 15-49-year-old women, generated a list of all "hotspot" sites for sex work nationally, and matched sites into strata in which the prevalence of sex work from sites with PSEs was applied to those without. Directly and indirectly estimated PSEs for all hotspot sites were summed to provide a national-level PSE, incorporating an adjustment accounting for sex work outside hotspots. RESULTS: Median site PSEs ranged from 12,863 in Harare to 247 in a rural growth-point. Multiplier methods produced the highest PSEs. We identified 55 hotspots estimated to include 95% of all FSW. FSW nationally were estimated to number 40,491, 1.23% of women aged 15-49 years, (plausibility bounds 28,177-58,797, 0.86-1.79%, those under 18 considered sexually exploited minors). CONCLUSION: There are large numbers of FSW estimated in Zimbabwe. Uncertainty in population size estimation should be reflected in policy-making.

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Demography Statistics Geography Population Mathematics Sociology

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Type: article
Language: en
Landing Page: https://doi.org/10.17615/jdqr-zq04
OA Status: green
Cited By: 2
Related Works: 10
OpenAlex ID: https://openalex.org/W4386112800

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.17615/jdqr-zq04

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Title: Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe: Comparison of Estimates Obtained Using Different Methods in Twenty Sites and Development of a National-Level Estimate

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Language: en

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Publication year: 2023

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Publication date: 2023-08-24

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Authors: E. Fearon, Sungai T. Chabata, Sitholubuhle Magutshwa, Tendayi Ndori‐Mharadze, Sithembile Musemburi, Henry Chidawanyika, Absolom Masendeke, Sue Napierala, Elizabeth Gonese, Amy Herman Roloff, Beth A. Tippett Barr, Peter H. Kilmarx, Ramona Wong-Gruenwald, Samson Chidiya, Mutsa Mhangara, Dagmar Hanisch, Jessie K. Edwards, Brian Rice, Isaac Taramusi, T. Mbengeranwa, Portia Manangazira, Owen Mugurungi, James Hargreaves, Frances M. Cowan

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Landing page: https://doi.org/10.17615/jdqr-zq04

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Concepts: Demography, Statistics, Geography, Population, Mathematics, Sociology

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Cited by: 2

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abstract_inverted_index.40,491,	209
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abstract_inverted_index.census,	82
abstract_inverted_index.highest	190
abstract_inverted_index.hotspot	153
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abstract_inverted_index.METHODS:	38
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abstract_inverted_index.hotspots	195
abstract_inverted_index.medians.	94
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abstract_inverted_index.Zimbabwe,	69
abstract_inverted_index.Zimbabwe.	236
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abstract_inverted_index.estimated	96, 149, 196, 206, 234
abstract_inverted_index.estimates	4, 87
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abstract_inverted_index.hotspots.	170
abstract_inverted_index.mappings,	55
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abstract_inverted_index.adjustment	164
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abstract_inverted_index.0.86-1.79%,	219
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abstract_inverted_index.policy-making.	246
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abstract_inverted_index.capture-recapture).	84
abstract_inverted_index.estimates.Zimbabwe.	37
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institutions_distinct_count	24
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