Evolutionary Modeling of Risk Transfer for Safe Operation of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects Using Dempster–Shafer and Bayesian Network Article Swipe

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Tianyu Fan , Qikai Li , Bo Wang , Zhiyong Li , Xiangtian Nie ·

YOU? · · 2025 · Open Access · · DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13121064

Inter-basin water transfer projects (IBWTPs) play a crucial role in addressing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and ensuring water security in the receiving areas. However, these projects are subject to various risk factors during their operation. While risk management is critical, current research in this field lacks a systematic and dynamic approach. A three-dimensional measurement model for probability, loss, and risk value, based on Dempster–Shafer (DS) evidence theory, Bayesian networks, and the equivalence method, was established in this study and, in consideration of the engineering characteristics of the IBWTP, a dynamic transmission evolution model for risk is constructed. The applicability and effectiveness of the model are demonstrated through a case study of the Central Line Project of South-to-North Water Diversion (CLPSNWD). The results indicate that the system risk of the CLPSNWD is in an unstable state, with the key influencing factors being channel engineering risk, flood disaster risk, pipeline engineering risk, and water transfer (discharge) cross-structure risk. The research findings offer a novel approach to the quantitative analysis and evolution of risk and contribute to the further development of engineering risk management theory.

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Risk Management Framework

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Water transfer Risk analysis (engineering) Risk management Bayesian network Flood myth Risk assessment Flood risk management Water security Water supply Computer science Pipeline (software) Engineering Key (lock) Field (mathematics) Risk management framework Scope (computer science) Water resources Channel (broadcasting) Water hammer Vulnerability (computing) Emergency management System dynamics Stochastic modelling Risk management tools Systems engineering Transmission (telecommunications) Bayesian inference Environmental resource management

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Type: article
Language: en
Landing Page: https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13121064
PDF: https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/12/1064/pdf
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13121064

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Title: Evolutionary Modeling of Risk Transfer for Safe Operation of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects Using Dempster–Shafer and Bayesian Network

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Language: en

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Publication year: 2025

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Publication date: 2025-11-24

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Authors: Tianyu Fan, Qikai Li, Bo Wang, Zhiyong Li, Xiangtian Nie

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Landing page: https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13121064

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Concepts: Water transfer, Risk analysis (engineering), Risk management, Bayesian network, Flood myth, Risk assessment, Flood risk management, Water security, Water supply, Computer science, Pipeline (software), Engineering, Key (lock), Field (mathematics), Risk management framework, Scope (computer science), Water resources, Channel (broadcasting), Water hammer, Vulnerability (computing), Emergency management, System dynamics, Stochastic modelling, Risk management tools, Systems engineering, Transmission (telecommunications), Bayesian inference, Environmental resource management

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abstract_inverted_index.IBWTP,	92
abstract_inverted_index.areas.	27
abstract_inverted_index.during	37
abstract_inverted_index.state,	139
abstract_inverted_index.system	130
abstract_inverted_index.uneven	12
abstract_inverted_index.value,	65
abstract_inverted_index.CLPSNWD	134
abstract_inverted_index.Central	117
abstract_inverted_index.Project	119
abstract_inverted_index.channel	146
abstract_inverted_index.crucial	7
abstract_inverted_index.current	45
abstract_inverted_index.dynamic	54, 94
abstract_inverted_index.factors	36, 144
abstract_inverted_index.further	180
abstract_inverted_index.method,	77
abstract_inverted_index.results	126
abstract_inverted_index.spatial	13
abstract_inverted_index.subject	32
abstract_inverted_index.theory,	71
abstract_inverted_index.theory.	186
abstract_inverted_index.through	111
abstract_inverted_index.various	34
abstract_inverted_index.(IBWTPs)	4
abstract_inverted_index.Bayesian	72
abstract_inverted_index.However,	28
abstract_inverted_index.analysis	171
abstract_inverted_index.approach	167
abstract_inverted_index.disaster	150
abstract_inverted_index.ensuring	21
abstract_inverted_index.evidence	70
abstract_inverted_index.findings	163
abstract_inverted_index.indicate	127
abstract_inverted_index.pipeline	152
abstract_inverted_index.projects	3, 30
abstract_inverted_index.research	46, 162
abstract_inverted_index.security	23
abstract_inverted_index.temporal	15
abstract_inverted_index.transfer	2, 157
abstract_inverted_index.unstable	138
abstract_inverted_index.Diversion	123
abstract_inverted_index.approach.	55
abstract_inverted_index.critical,	44
abstract_inverted_index.evolution	96, 173
abstract_inverted_index.networks,	73
abstract_inverted_index.receiving	26
abstract_inverted_index.resources	19
abstract_inverted_index.(CLPSNWD).	124
abstract_inverted_index.addressing	10
abstract_inverted_index.contribute	177
abstract_inverted_index.management	42, 185
abstract_inverted_index.operation.	39
abstract_inverted_index.systematic	52
abstract_inverted_index.(discharge)	158
abstract_inverted_index.Inter-basin	0
abstract_inverted_index.development	181
abstract_inverted_index.engineering	88, 147, 153, 183
abstract_inverted_index.equivalence	76
abstract_inverted_index.established	79
abstract_inverted_index.influencing	143
abstract_inverted_index.measurement	58
abstract_inverted_index.constructed.	101
abstract_inverted_index.demonstrated	110
abstract_inverted_index.distribution	16
abstract_inverted_index.probability,	61
abstract_inverted_index.quantitative	170
abstract_inverted_index.transmission	95
abstract_inverted_index.applicability	103
abstract_inverted_index.consideration	85
abstract_inverted_index.effectiveness	105
abstract_inverted_index.South-to-North	121
abstract_inverted_index.characteristics	89
abstract_inverted_index.cross-structure	159
abstract_inverted_index.Dempster–Shafer	68
abstract_inverted_index.three-dimensional	57
cited_by_percentile_year
countries_distinct_count	1
institutions_distinct_count	5
citation_normalized_percentile