Forecasting for intended consequences Article Swipe
Tina G. Mozelewski
,
Robert M. Scheller
·
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.370
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.370
Restoration and conservation innovations face numerous challenges that often limit widespread adoption, including uncertainty of outcomes, risk averse or status quo biased management, and unknown trade‐offs. These barriers often result in cautious conservation that does not consider the true cost of impeding innovation, and overemphasizes the risks of unintended consequences versus the opportunities presented by proactive and innovative conservation, the intended consequences. Simulation models are powerful tools for forecasting and evaluating the potential outcomes of restoration or conservation innovations prior to on‐the‐ground deployment. These forecasts provide information about the potential trade‐offs among the risks and benefits of candidate management actions, elucidating the likelihood that an innovation will achieve its intended consequences and at what cost. They can also highlight when and where business‐as‐usual management may incur larger costs than alternative management approaches over the long‐term. Forecasts inform the decision‐making process prior to the implementation of emergent, proactive practices at broad scales, lending support for management decisions and reducing the barriers to innovation. Here we review the science, motivations, and challenges of forecasting for restoration and conservation innovations.
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Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.370
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/csp2.370
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 19
- References
- 106
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W3132042599
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W3132042599Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.370Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Forecasting for intended consequencesWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2021Year of publication
- Publication date
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2021-02-19Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Tina G. Mozelewski, Robert M. SchellerList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.370Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/csp2.370Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/csp2.370Direct OA link when available
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Risk analysis (engineering), Status quo, Unintended consequences, Process (computing), Software deployment, Business, Management science, Economics, Computer science, Environmental resource management, Political science, Law, Market economy, Operating systemTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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19Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2024: 5, 2023: 4, 2022: 4, 2021: 6Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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106Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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