GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Databases Article Swipe
Neal T. Graham
,
Mohamad Hejazi
,
Min Chen
,
Emma E. Davies
,
Jae Edmonds
,
S.H. Kim
,
Sean Turner
·
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/dyv29j
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/dyv29j
This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. We describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.
Related Topics
Concepts
GCM transcription factors
Database
Environmental science
Computer science
General Circulation Model
Climate change
Biology
Ecology
Metadata
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- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/dyv29j
- OA Status
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- Cited By
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- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4398711885
All OpenAlex metadata
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- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/dyv29jDigital Object Identifier
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GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output DatabasesWork title
- Type
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datasetOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2023Year of publication
- Publication date
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2023-02-06Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Neal T. Graham, Mohamad Hejazi, Min Chen, Emma E. Davies, Jae Edmonds, S.H. Kim, Sean TurnerList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/dyv29jPublisher landing page
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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greenOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/dyv29jDirect OA link when available
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GCM transcription factors, Database, Environmental science, Computer science, General Circulation Model, Climate change, Biology, EcologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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1Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2023: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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