Generalized Poisson Spatial Autoregressive Modeling of Pneumonia Cases in Children Under Five in Tuban Article Swipe

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Joshua Capri Gunawan Sihombing , Sutikno Sutikno , Achmad Choiruddin ·

YOU? · · 2025 · Open Access · · DOI: https://doi.org/10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.37288

The number of pneumonia cases in children under five in Tuban Regency presents two significant data challenges, namely, overdispersion and spatial dependency. This study aims to develop and apply the Generalized Poisson Spatial Autoregressive (GPSAR) model to address both issues simultaneously. The model was estimated using a MLE-BHHH procedure and validated using 10-fold cross-validation (CV). The results confirm the model's validity and superiority. The GPSAR model outperformed the non-spatial GPR model in terms of goodness-of-fit (AIC: 1301.09 vs. 1312.67) and predictive accuracy (Out-of-Sample CV-RMSE: 8.451 vs. 8.716). Statistically, the structural parameters for spatial lag and overdispersion were highly significant. Two predictor variables, exclusive breastfeeding and complete basic immunization, were also found to be statistically significant factors. This research provides a robust regression framework for spatial count data exhibiting overdispersion and offers new insights into pneumonia case determinants in the region.

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Overdispersion Autoregressive model Statistics Mathematics Generalized linear model Poisson regression Poisson distribution Econometrics Quasi-likelihood Regression analysis Count data Spatial analysis Covariate Distributed lag Generalized additive model Pneumonia Regression Zero-inflated model Spatial dependence Lag Random effects model Linear regression

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Landing Page: https://doi.org/10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.37288
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.37288

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Title: Generalized Poisson Spatial Autoregressive Modeling of Pneumonia Cases in Children Under Five in Tuban

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Publication year: 2025

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Publication date: 2025-11-26

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Authors: Joshua Capri Gunawan Sihombing, Sutikno Sutikno, Achmad Choiruddin

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Landing page: https://doi.org/10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.37288

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Concepts: Overdispersion, Autoregressive model, Statistics, Mathematics, Generalized linear model, Poisson regression, Poisson distribution, Econometrics, Quasi-likelihood, Regression analysis, Count data, Spatial analysis, Covariate, Distributed lag, Generalized additive model, Pneumonia, Regression, Zero-inflated model, Spatial dependence, Lag, Random effects model, Linear regression

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