Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest Article Swipe
I investigate the downward drift of U.S. interest rates from 1984:Q1 to 2019:Q4.For this, I bring the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model to data on the U.S. and an aggregate of its major trading partners using Bayesian techniques.I show that the U.S. natural (or equilibrium) interest rate recovered from the model has fallen more gradually than the long-run U.S. real rate, cushioned by productivity shocks.Since inflation expectations became well-anchored in the '90s, this implies that the continued interest rate decline is largely explained by the real rate tracking the natural rate downward.Foreign productivity spillovers have had significant effects on the U.S. natural rate and on U.S. output potential.However, foreign shock propagation contributed little to the upswing in U.S. output relative to potential or to sustaining inflation close to target, both of which are attributed almost entirely to mark-up compression (cost-push shocks) and an accommodative monetary policy in the U.S.
Related Topics
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- http://doi.org/10.24149/gwp403r1
- https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp403r1
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 3
- References
- 73
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W3195591675
Raw OpenAlex JSON
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https://openalex.org/W3195591675Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp403r1Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of InterestWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2021Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2021-02-01Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Enrique Martínez‐GarcíaList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp403r1Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
-
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp403r1Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp403r1Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Economics, Interest rate, Monetary economics, Inflation (cosmology), Real interest rate, Monetary policy, Productivity, New Keynesian economics, Shock (circulatory), Keynesian economics, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Taylor rule, Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Central bank, Physics, Theoretical physics, Internal medicine, MedicineTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
3Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2022: 1, 2021: 2Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
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73Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| abstract_inverted_index.recovered | 47 |
| abstract_inverted_index.workhorse | 17 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(cost-push | 139 |
| abstract_inverted_index.attributed | 133 |
| abstract_inverted_index.spillovers | 93 |
| abstract_inverted_index.sustaining | 124 |
| abstract_inverted_index.2019:Q4.For | 12 |
| abstract_inverted_index.compression | 138 |
| abstract_inverted_index.contributed | 111 |
| abstract_inverted_index.investigate | 1 |
| abstract_inverted_index.propagation | 110 |
| abstract_inverted_index.significant | 96 |
| abstract_inverted_index.two-country | 18 |
| abstract_inverted_index.equilibrium) | 44 |
| abstract_inverted_index.expectations | 66 |
| abstract_inverted_index.productivity | 63, 92 |
| abstract_inverted_index.shocks.Since | 64 |
| abstract_inverted_index.techniques.I | 37 |
| abstract_inverted_index.accommodative | 143 |
| abstract_inverted_index.well-anchored | 68 |
| abstract_inverted_index.downward.Foreign | 91 |
| abstract_inverted_index.potential.However, | 107 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.max | 95 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.min | 89 |
| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5059842035 |
| countries_distinct_count | 1 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 1 |
| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I68415526 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].id | https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].score | 0.6700000166893005 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name | Decent work and economic growth |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.83509823 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | False |