Improving the lightning forecast with the WRF model and lightning data assimilation: Results of a two-seasons numerical experiment over Italy Article Swipe
Stefano Federico
,
Rosa Claudia Torcasio
,
Jana Popová
,
Zbyněk Sokol
,
L. Pop
,
Martina Lagasio
,
Barry Lynn
,
Silvia Puca
,
Stefano Dietrich
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382
We show, for the first time over Italy and over part of the central Mediterranean Basin, the impact of lightning data assimilation (LDA) on the strokes forecast for a long period. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (DLS) at convection allowing horizontal resolution (3 km). We carried out a two-seasons experiment (summer 2020 and fall 2021) providing the forecast of lightning and precipitation for the next 6 h (nowcasting), considering two sub-periods (0-3 h and 3-6 h) for verification. The LDA is done through a nudging scheme that increases the water vapor mass in the mixed-phase region based on observed flash density rates and simulated graupel mixing ratio. No changes are made to the model run if spurious convection is predicted or no flashes are observed. . LDA can trigger convection missed by the control forecast, without LDA, and/or can redistribute the strokes predicted to be more consistent with observations. LDA has a positive impact on strokes forecast, improving correct forecasts and reducing false alarms. This improvement is however confined to the first three-hours of forecast with negligible to negative impact for longer time ranges, in line with other studies. The improvement pattern is different in summer and fall, depending on the convection development. The analysis of the Fraction Skill Score shows the usefulness of the forecast for practical purposes, considering the current areas used by the Civil Protection Department to issue meteorological alerts for intense convective events over Italy. Finally, it is shown that the forecast at the short-range (0−3h) using LDA can improve the strokes forecast issued on the previous day, not using LDA, and the methodology of this paper can be applied to issue warnings and alerts as the storm is approaching. A brief examination of rainfall forecast shows positive impact of LDA at the short-range (0-3 h), with neutral impact for longer time ranges. The different impact of LDA on the strokes and precipitation forecasts is also highlighted.
Related Topics
Concepts
Nowcasting
Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Meteorology
Environmental science
Lightning (connector)
Data assimilation
Numerical weather prediction
Quantitative precipitation forecast
Convection
Climatology
Lightning detection
Precipitation
Graupel
National weather service
Spurious relationship
Thunderstorm
Geology
Geography
Statistics
Mathematics
Quantum mechanics
Power (physics)
Physics
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382
- OA Status
- hybrid
- Cited By
- 6
- References
- 78
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4393359147
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4393359147Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Improving the lightning forecast with the WRF model and lightning data assimilation: Results of a two-seasons numerical experiment over ItalyWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2024Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2024-03-31Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Jana Popová, Zbyněk Sokol, L. Pop, Martina Lagasio, Barry Lynn, Silvia Puca, Stefano DietrichList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382Publisher landing page
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
hybridOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Nowcasting, Weather Research and Forecasting Model, Meteorology, Environmental science, Lightning (connector), Data assimilation, Numerical weather prediction, Quantitative precipitation forecast, Convection, Climatology, Lightning detection, Precipitation, Graupel, National weather service, Spurious relationship, Thunderstorm, Geology, Geography, Statistics, Mathematics, Quantum mechanics, Power (physics), PhysicsTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
6Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2025: 4, 2024: 2Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
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78Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| sustainable_development_goals[0].id | https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].score | 0.4099999964237213 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name | Life below water |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.91069401 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | True |