Incidence trend analysis of human brucellosis in the context of human development: an ecological study using joinpoint regression in Iran Article Swipe
Marziyeh Hamyali Ainvand
,
Mohammad Ebrahimi
·
YOU?
·
· 2025
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-25304-5
YOU?
·
· 2025
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-25304-5
Background Human brucellosis (HB) remains a significant public health concern in Iran, where its burden may be shaped by socio-developmental factors. This ecological time trend analysis explores long-term patterns in HB incidence in the context of human development. Methods We conducted Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends in HB incidence from 2000 to 2023 in Iran. The Human Development Index (HDI) was included as a predictor to examine associations using Spearman correlation and linear regression on log-transformed HDI. Residual diagnostics and robust regression techniques were applied. Results The overall annual percentage change (AAPC) in HB incidence showed a slight but statistically significant upward trend (+ 0.45%; p = 0.023). Joinpoint regression identified four statistically significant changes in trend. A moderate negative correlation was observed between HB incidence and HDI (Spearman’s ρ = − 0.54). Linear regression indicated an inverse association between log(HDI) and HB incidence (β = − 65.96, p = 0.044), though the explained variance was limited (R² = 0.226). Conclusion The findings suggest that higher levels of human development may be associated with reduced HB incidence at the national level. However, this association is likely influenced by unmeasured factors such as access to veterinary care, cultural practices, and surveillance quality. Caution is warranted in interpreting these findings due to the ecological study design and potential underreporting.
Related Topics
Concepts
Ecological study
Incidence (geometry)
Trend analysis
Context (archaeology)
Medicine
Biostatistics
Regression analysis
Public health
Demography
Linear regression
Environmental health
Epidemiology
Human Development Index
Regression
Poisson regression
Bayesian multivariate linear regression
Brucellosis
Correlation
General linear model
Veterinary medicine
Analysis of variance
Linear model
Explained variation
Spearman's rank correlation coefficient
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-25304-5
- https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-025-25304-5
- OA Status
- gold
- References
- 31
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W7105826820
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
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- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-25304-5Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Incidence trend analysis of human brucellosis in the context of human development: an ecological study using joinpoint regression in IranWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2025Year of publication
- Publication date
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2025-11-17Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Marziyeh Hamyali Ainvand, Mohammad EbrahimiList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-25304-5Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-025-25304-5Direct link to full text PDF
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-025-25304-5Direct OA link when available
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Ecological study, Incidence (geometry), Trend analysis, Context (archaeology), Medicine, Biostatistics, Regression analysis, Public health, Demography, Linear regression, Environmental health, Epidemiology, Human Development Index, Regression, Poisson regression, Bayesian multivariate linear regression, Brucellosis, Correlation, General linear model, Veterinary medicine, Analysis of variance, Linear model, Explained variation, Spearman's rank correlation coefficientTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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0Total citation count in OpenAlex
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| publication_date | 2025-11-17 |
| publication_year | 2025 |
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