Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models Article Swipe
Tsung‐Lin Hsieh
,
Gabriel A. Vecchi
,
Wenchang Yang
,
Isaac M. Held
,
Stephen T. Garner
·
YOU?
·
· 2020
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5
YOU?
·
· 2020
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5
A diagnostic framework is developed to explain the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate in high-resolution global atmospheric models having different complexity of boundary conditions. The framework uses vortex dynamics to identify the large-scale control on the evolution of TC precursors—first non-rotating convective clusters and then weakly rotating seeds. In experiments with perturbed sea surface temperature (SST) and $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ concentration from the historical values, the response of TCs follows the response of seeds. The distribution of seeds is explained by the distribution of the non-rotating convective clusters multiplied by a probability that they transition to seeds. The distribution of convective clusters is constrained by the large-scale vertical velocity and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with shifting Inter tropical Convergence Zones. The probability of transition to seeds is constrained by the large-scale vorticity via an analytical function, representing the relative importance between vortex stretching and vorticity advection, and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with uniform SST. The consistency between seed and TC responses breaks down substantially when the realistic SST is perturbed such that the spatial gradient is significantly enhanced or reduced. In such cases, the difference between the responses is explained by a change in the ventilation index, which influences the fraction of seeds that develop into TCs. The proposed TC-climate relationship serves as a framework to explain the diversity of TC projection across models and forcing scenarios.
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Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5
- https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5.pdf
- OA Status
- hybrid
- Cited By
- 75
- References
- 65
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W3085181899
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W3085181899Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric modelsWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2020Year of publication
- Publication date
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2020-09-12Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Tsung‐Lin Hsieh, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Isaac M. Held, Stephen T. GarnerList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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hybridOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5.pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
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Tropical cyclone, Climatology, Advection, Convection, Vorticity, Atmospheric sciences, Environmental science, Meteorology, Physics, Vortex, Geology, ThermodynamicsTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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75Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 17, 2024: 14, 2023: 17, 2022: 13, 2021: 13Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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65Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| publication_date | 2020-09-12 |
| publication_year | 2020 |
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