Learning from the past to prepare for the worst. Impact Chain on the multi-hazard of COVID-19 pandemic and a powerful earthquake in Bucharest Article Swipe
Cristina Savu
,
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu
,
Iuliana Armaș
,
Dragoş Toma-Danilă
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12033
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12033
In the last years, the impacts of natural hazards have been coupled with and sometimes overshadowed by those of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such co-occurrences added extra layers to risk management and highlighted the need for updated multi-hazard risk models and management plans. While developing the tools, models, and strategies to battle the challenges of the post-pandemic world, an unsettling question lingers: What if the most impactful and feared hazard in a specific area were to occur during a pandemic wave?This study aims to 1) take an in-depth look at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospital system in Bucharest, Romania, and 2) identify the compounded impacts of a powerful earthquake that would potentially affect the city during a pandemic wave, under an Impact Chain-based approach. To this end, two Impact Chains are analysed side by side: one of them presents the actual impacts of the pandemic documented for 2020-2022, and the other focuses on the potential impacts of a powerful earthquake, similar to the one that affected Romania in March 1977 (7.4 MW). The co-occurrence of such powerful hazardous events poses a worst-case scenario for Bucharest, which stands out as the European capital with the highest seismic risk and one of the urban centres severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Impact Chain centred on the COVID-19 pandemic dwells on a wide range of sources: scientific literature, data collected from hospital administration (e.g., reports on available medical resources, including human resources), official reports from international health care organisms, legislative documents that regulate COVID-19 prevention protocols, official press releases, and grey literature in the form of news reports. The earthquake-based Impact Chain represents a simplified, expert knowledge-based version of a larger chain developed within the Paratus Project as part of the analysis of present and future outcomes of a major earthquake in Bucharest. By juxtaposing the two Impact Chains, this study addresses the research gap concerning the compounded impacts of earthquakes and the COVID-19 pandemic, an area currently open for further investigation. This analysis offers an initial answer to the worrisome question posed earlier, aiding in the preparation for “the worst” in Bucharest.Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, earthquake, impact chain, hospital system, Romania
Related Topics
Concepts
Pandemic
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Hazard
History
Seismology
Virology
Geology
Medicine
Biology
Outbreak
Infectious disease (medical specialty)
Disease
Ecology
Pathology
Metadata
- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12033
- OA Status
- gold
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4392577598
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4392577598Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12033Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Learning from the past to prepare for the worst. Impact Chain on the multi-hazard of COVID-19 pandemic and a powerful earthquake in BucharestWork title
- Type
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preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2024Year of publication
- Publication date
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2024-03-08Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Cristina Savu, Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, Iuliana Armaș, Dragoş Toma-DanilăList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12033Publisher landing page
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12033Direct OA link when available
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Pandemic, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Hazard, History, Seismology, Virology, Geology, Medicine, Biology, Outbreak, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Disease, Ecology, PathologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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0Total citation count in OpenAlex
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5087911279, https://openalex.org/A5004647523, https://openalex.org/A5089250235, https://openalex.org/A5092069920 |
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