Modeling seismic hazard and landslide occurrence probabilities in northwestern Yunnan, China: exploring complex fault systems with multi-segment rupturing in a block rotational tectonic zone Article Swipe
Jia Cheng
,
Chong Xu
,
Xiwei Xu
,
Shimin Zhang
,
Pengyu Zhu
·
YOU?
·
· 2025
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025
YOU?
·
· 2025
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025
The northwestern Yunnan region, located on the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, is characterized by a combination of ductile flow of the lower crust with low shear-wave velocity and gravitational collapse, giving rise to a complex network of active faults. This presents significant seismic hazards, particularly due to the potential for multi-segment ruptures and resulting landslides. This article presents a new seismic hazard model for the northwestern Yunnan region, incorporating recent findings on fault geometry and slip rates along with historical seismicity rates to assess multi-segment rupturing risks. Among the four potential multi-segment rupture combination models examined, Model 1, characterized by multi-segment rupture combinations on single faults, particularly fracturing the Zhongdian fault, is proposed as the most suitable for the northwestern Yunnan region, given that the non-mainshock slip ratios on fault segments are all below the 30 %–40 % threshold, as supported by the agreement of modeled seismicity rates with fault slip rates. Our analysis demonstrates that the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a mean return period of 475 years, which is calculated with the developed probabilistic seismic hazard model, has a strong correlation with the spatial distribution of the faults. On average, these values are higher than the PGA given by the China Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map. Furthermore, we utilized PGA values with the Bayesian probability method and a machine learning model to predict landslide occurrence probabilities as a function of our PGA distribution map. Our findings underscore that the observed combinations of multi-segment ruptures and their associated behaviors were in alignment with the small block rotation triggered by the gravitational collapse of the Tibetan Plateau. This result highlights the intricate interplay between multi-segment rupturing hazards and regional geological dynamics while also providing valuable guidance for disaster preparedness efforts.
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- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025
- https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/857/2025/nhess-25-857-2025.pdf
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 2
- References
- 72
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4407922590
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4407922590Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025Digital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Modeling seismic hazard and landslide occurrence probabilities in northwestern Yunnan, China: exploring complex fault systems with multi-segment rupturing in a block rotational tectonic zoneWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2025Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2025-02-25Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, Pengyu ZhuList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/857/2025/nhess-25-857-2025.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/857/2025/nhess-25-857-2025.pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
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Seismology, Landslide, Geology, Tectonics, Seismic hazard, Block (permutation group theory), Fault (geology), Hazard, China, Geography, Geometry, Organic chemistry, Mathematics, Archaeology, ChemistryTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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2Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2025: 2Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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72Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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