Modeling the severity–yield relationship and economic damage threshold for white spot epidemics in the second-season maize in Brazil Article Swipe
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· 2025
· Open Access
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· DOI: https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/u9pc4_v1
· OA: W4409640451
Maize white spot (MWS) caused by Pantoea ananatis in Brazil is a yield-limiting disease. However, recent studies have not quantitatively assessed the relationship between disease severity and crop yield. In this study, we evaluated this association using Fisher's Z (Z) and the correlation coefficient (𝑟), as well as meta-analytic and random-coefficients models, from which we estimated the intercept (β0) and slope (β1) of the regressions. We also tested the influence of potential moderator variables (yield class, severity class, and region). Finally, we conducted a simulation to determine potential values for the economic damage threshold (EDT) to support management decisions. The results showed a significant association between white spot severity and maize yield (Z = 0.51; 𝑟 = -0.47). Both models revealed a negative relationship between these variables. In the meta-analytic model, the estimated coefficients were β0 = 7,616.61 kg/ha and β1 = -60.22 (P < 0.001), while in the random-coefficients model, they were β0 = 7,555.61 kg/ha and β1 = -57.53 (P < 0.001). No moderator variable was statistically significant for the slope (P > 0.06), but yield class, as expected, had a significant effect on the intercept (P < 0.0001). The ratio between the slope and intercept allowed us to estimate the disease damage coefficient, which was approximately -0.80 % (95% CI = -1.06 to -0.55), and the mean EDT (disease severity) value was 2.14%. These findings highlight white spot disease as a limiting factor for maize yield and provide valuable insights for optimizing disease control strategies.
