Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models Article Swipe
Jonathan Baker
,
Michael J. Bell
,
Laura Jackson
,
Richard Renshaw
,
Geoffrey K. Vallis
,
Andrew Watson
,
Richard Wood
·
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103381
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103381
Future projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyze projected AMOC weakening in 27 CMIP6 climate models, in terms of changes in three return pathways of the AMOC. The branch of the AMOC that returns through diffusive upwelling in the Indo‐Pacific, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean (SO), is particularly sensitive to warming, in part, because shallowing of the deep flow prevents it from entering the Indo‐Pacific via the SO. The present‐day strength of this Indo‐Pacific pathway provides a strong constraint on the projected AMOC weakening. However, estimates of this pathway using four observationally based methods imply a wide range of AMOC weakening under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario of 29%–61% by 2100. Our results suggest that improved observational constraints on this pathway would substantially reduce uncertainty in 21st century AMOC decline.
Related Topics
Concepts
Climatology
Upwelling
General Circulation Model
Lead (geology)
Shoal
Ocean current
Coupled model intercomparison project
Climate model
Geology
Oceanography
Environmental science
Climate change
Geomorphology
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103381
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2023GL103381
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 26
- References
- 77
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4384662727
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4384662727Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103381Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 ModelsWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2023Year of publication
- Publication date
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2023-07-17Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Jonathan Baker, Michael J. Bell, Laura Jackson, Richard Renshaw, Geoffrey K. Vallis, Andrew Watson, Richard WoodList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103381Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2023GL103381Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2023GL103381Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Climatology, Upwelling, General Circulation Model, Lead (geology), Shoal, Ocean current, Coupled model intercomparison project, Climate model, Geology, Oceanography, Environmental science, Climate change, GeomorphologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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26Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2025: 14, 2024: 11, 2023: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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77Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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