Predicting Depths of Burst at Denied Access Sites Using Bayesian Data Synthesis Article Swipe
N. A. Duncan
,
Marco F. Piazzoli
,
Mark Deinert
·
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094397
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094397
Anthropogenic radioisotopes are the only definitive signature that a below ground nuclear test has been conducted. The depth at which a test occurs is known to be a critical parameter, affecting not only the migration time for gases to reach the surface but also their subsequent isotopic ratios. Suspected tests typically occur at sites to which the international community has no access, and their suspected location and depth must be computed. Teleseismic methods are typically used for doing this but can have uncertainties larger than a kilometer. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses Bayesian data synthesis to combine information on local topology, geology, the presence of surface deformation, and yield. The method is tested against actual depth of burst data from 36 Soviet tests and 14 in the United States with the mean error to <53 m if the yield can be accurately estimated.
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Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094397
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2021GL094397
- OA Status
- bronze
- References
- 33
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4200015902
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4200015902Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094397Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Predicting Depths of Burst at Denied Access Sites Using Bayesian Data SynthesisWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2021Year of publication
- Publication date
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2021-12-13Full publication date if available
- Authors
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N. A. Duncan, Marco F. Piazzoli, Mark DeinertList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094397Publisher landing page
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2021GL094397Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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bronzeOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2021GL094397Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Yield (engineering), Bayesian probability, Geology, Surface (topology), Ranging, Seismology, Statistics, Geodesy, Mathematics, Geometry, Physics, ThermodynamicsTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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0Total citation count in OpenAlex
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33Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| abstract_inverted_index.ratios. | 48 |
| abstract_inverted_index.surface | 42, 109 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Abstract | 0 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Bayesian | 96 |
| abstract_inverted_index.approach | 93 |
| abstract_inverted_index.critical | 29 |
| abstract_inverted_index.geology, | 105 |
| abstract_inverted_index.isotopic | 47 |
| abstract_inverted_index.location | 66 |
| abstract_inverted_index.presence | 107 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Suspected | 49 |
| abstract_inverted_index.affecting | 31 |
| abstract_inverted_index.community | 59 |
| abstract_inverted_index.computed. | 71 |
| abstract_inverted_index.migration | 35 |
| abstract_inverted_index.signature | 7 |
| abstract_inverted_index.suspected | 65 |
| abstract_inverted_index.synthesis | 98 |
| abstract_inverted_index.topology, | 104 |
| abstract_inverted_index.typically | 51, 75 |
| abstract_inverted_index.accurately | 145 |
| abstract_inverted_index.conducted. | 16 |
| abstract_inverted_index.definitive | 6 |
| abstract_inverted_index.estimated. | 146 |
| abstract_inverted_index.kilometer. | 87 |
| abstract_inverted_index.parameter, | 30 |
| abstract_inverted_index.subsequent | 46 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Teleseismic | 72 |
| abstract_inverted_index.alternative | 92 |
| abstract_inverted_index.information | 101 |
| abstract_inverted_index.deformation, | 110 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Anthropogenic | 1 |
| abstract_inverted_index.international | 58 |
| abstract_inverted_index.radioisotopes | 2 |
| abstract_inverted_index.uncertainties | 83 |
| cited_by_percentile_year | |
| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5026107567 |
| countries_distinct_count | 1 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 3 |
| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I167576493 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.14773134 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | False |