Predicting Suitable Spatial Distribution Areas for Urban Trees Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Species Distribution Models: A Case Study of Michelia chapensis Article Swipe
C. Y. Shen
,
Xi Chen
,
Chao Zhou
,
Luofeng Xu
,
Mengbo Qian
,
Hongbo Zhao
,
Kun Li
·
YOU?
·
· 2025
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030638
YOU?
·
· 2025
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030638
Climate change has presented considerable challenges in the management of urban forests and trees. Varieties of studies have predicted the potential changes in species distribution by employing single-algorithm species distribution models (SDMs) to investigate the impacts of climate change on plant species. However, there is still limited quantitative research on the impacts of climate change on the suitable distribution ranges of commonly used urban tree species. Therefore, our study aims to optimize traditional SDMs by integrating multiple machine learning algorithms and to propose a framework for identifying suitable distribution ranges of urban trees under climate change. We took Michelia chapensis, a tree species of particular significance in southern China, as a pilot tree species to investigate the evolution of its suitable distribution range in the context of two future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) across four periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). The findings indicated that the ensemble SDM showed strong predictive capacity, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.95. The suitable area for Michelia chapensis is estimated at 15.9 × 105 km2 currently and it will expand in most areas under future climate scenarios according to the projection. However, it will contract in southeastern Yunnan, central Guangdong, the Sichuan Basin, northern Hubei, and Jiangxi, etc. The central location of the current suitable distribution area is located in Hengyang, Hunan (27.36° N, 112.34° E), and is projected to shift westward with climate change in the future. The migration magnitude is positively correlated with the intensity of climate change. These findings provide a scientific basis for the future landscape planning and management of Michelia chapensis. Furthermore, the proposed framework can be seen as a valuable tool for predicting the suitable distribution ranges of urban trees in response to climate change, providing insights for proactive adaptation to climate change in urban planning and landscape management.
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- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030638
- https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/638/pdf?version=1742290686
- OA Status
- gold
- References
- 68
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
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All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
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https://openalex.org/W4408551747Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030638Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Predicting Suitable Spatial Distribution Areas for Urban Trees Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Species Distribution Models: A Case Study of Michelia chapensisWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2025Year of publication
- Publication date
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2025-03-18Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
C. Y. Shen, Xi Chen, Chao Zhou, Luofeng Xu, Mengbo Qian, Hongbo Zhao, Kun LiList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030638Publisher landing page
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https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/638/pdf?version=1742290686Direct link to full text PDF
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/638/pdf?version=1742290686Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Distribution (mathematics), Environmental science, Climate change, Spatial distribution, Species distribution, Geography, Physical geography, Ecology, Remote sensing, Mathematics, Biology, Habitat, Mathematical analysisTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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0Total citation count in OpenAlex
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