Predicting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Using Nonlinear System Identification Methods and the NARMAX Model Article Swipe

PDF

Hua‐Liang Wei , Grant R. Bigg , Edward Hanna ·

YOU? · · 2024 · Open Access · · DOI: https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in the coupled ocean-climate system and in global climate change. The analysis of its own behaviour and the understanding its links to other climate dynamics is of paramount importance today as we encounter an increasing pressure to adapt to climate change. Due to the enormous complexity, it is almost impossible to establish accurate models, purely based on first-principle modelling approaches, that can perfectly represent the relationships between the AMOC and other dynamic climate parameters. Data-based or data-driven modelling methods, can therefore provide an attractive alternative solution. Systematic regular and continuous measurement of the AMOC time series began in April 2004. The main objective of the paper is to use the monthly data of the AMOC measured during April 2004 - February 2017, together with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and density anomalies of the Gulf of Mexico, Labrador Sea and Norwegian Sea, measured during the same period, to investigate and understand the quantitative relationship between the AMOC and four drivers (NAO and the three density anomaly variables). In doing so, nonlinear system identification methods and the Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with Exogenous input (NARMAX) method are employed to develop a quantitative model that relates the AMOC to the four drivers. Experimental results show that the derived nonlinear model skillfully captures and represents the dynamics of the AMOC based on the other four variables. One of the findings from this study is that the use of autoregressive variables can help improve the prediction of the AMOC.

Related Topics

Physics

Computer Science

Concepts

Physics Computer science

Metadata

Type: article
Language: en
Landing Page: https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58
PDF: https://inzynieriamineralna.com.pl/index.php/testowe/article/download/550/346
OA Status: diamond
References: 19
Related Works: 10
OpenAlex ID: https://openalex.org/W4399997205

All OpenAlex metadata

Raw OpenAlex JSON

OpenAlex ID: https://openalex.org/W4399997205

Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
DOI: https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58

Digital Object Identifier
Title: Predicting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Using Nonlinear System Identification Methods and the NARMAX Model

Work title
Type: article

OpenAlex work type
Language: en

Primary language
Publication year: 2024

Year of publication
Publication date: 2024-06-25

Full publication date if available
Authors: Hua‐Liang Wei, Grant R. Bigg, Edward Hanna

List of authors in order
Landing page: https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58

Publisher landing page
PDF URL: https://inzynieriamineralna.com.pl/index.php/testowe/article/download/550/346

Direct link to full text PDF
Open access: Yes

Whether a free full text is available
OA status: diamond

Open access status per OpenAlex
OA URL: https://inzynieriamineralna.com.pl/index.php/testowe/article/download/550/346

Direct OA link when available
Concepts: Physics, Computer science

Top concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
Cited by: 0

Total citation count in OpenAlex
References (count): 19

Number of works referenced by this work
Related works (count): 10

Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex

Full payload

id	https://openalex.org/W4399997205
doi	https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58
ids.doi	https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58
ids.openalex	https://openalex.org/W4399997205
fwci	0.0
type	article
title	Predicting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Using Nonlinear System Identification Methods and the NARMAX Model
awards[0].id	https://openalex.org/G269626148
awards[0].funder_id	https://openalex.org/F4320320022
awards[0].display_name
awards[0].funder_award_id	NE/W005875/1
awards[0].funder_display_name	Sight Research UK
awards[1].id	https://openalex.org/G3596501164
awards[1].funder_id	https://openalex.org/F4320334631
awards[1].display_name
awards[1].funder_award_id	NE/W005875/1
awards[1].funder_display_name	Natural Environment Research Council
awards[2].id	https://openalex.org/G8315318520
awards[2].funder_id	https://openalex.org/F4320334631
awards[2].display_name
awards[2].funder_award_id	NE/V001787/1
awards[2].funder_display_name	Natural Environment Research Council
awards[3].id	https://openalex.org/G8876531553
awards[3].funder_id	https://openalex.org/F4320320022
awards[3].display_name
awards[3].funder_award_id	NE/V001787/1
awards[3].funder_display_name	Sight Research UK
biblio.issue	1
biblio.volume	1
biblio.last_page
biblio.first_page
topics[0].id	https://openalex.org/T11459
topics[0].field.id	https://openalex.org/fields/19
topics[0].field.display_name	Earth and Planetary Sciences
topics[0].score	0.9599000215530396
topics[0].domain.id	https://openalex.org/domains/3
topics[0].domain.display_name	Physical Sciences
topics[0].subfield.id	https://openalex.org/subfields/1902
topics[0].subfield.display_name	Atmospheric Science
topics[0].display_name	Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
funders[0].id	https://openalex.org/F4320320022
funders[0].ror	https://ror.org/03z2py885
funders[0].display_name	Sight Research UK
funders[1].id	https://openalex.org/F4320334631
funders[1].ror	https://ror.org/02b5d8509
funders[1].display_name	Natural Environment Research Council
is_xpac	False
apc_list
apc_paid
concepts[0].id	https://openalex.org/C121332964
concepts[0].level	0
concepts[0].score	0.33943426609039307
concepts[0].wikidata	https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413
concepts[0].display_name	Physics
concepts[1].id	https://openalex.org/C41008148
concepts[1].level	0
concepts[1].score	0.33500614762306213
concepts[1].wikidata	https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198
concepts[1].display_name	Computer science
keywords[0].id	https://openalex.org/keywords/physics
keywords[0].score	0.33943426609039307
keywords[0].display_name	Physics
keywords[1].id	https://openalex.org/keywords/computer-science
keywords[1].score	0.33500614762306213
keywords[1].display_name	Computer science
language	en
locations[0].id	doi:10.29227/im-2024-01-58
locations[0].is_oa	True
locations[0].source.id	https://openalex.org/S4210195746
locations[0].source.issn	1640-4920
locations[0].source.type	journal
locations[0].source.is_oa	True
locations[0].source.issn_l	1640-4920
locations[0].source.is_core	False
locations[0].source.is_in_doaj	False
locations[0].source.display_name	Inżynieria Mineralna
locations[0].source.host_organization
locations[0].source.host_organization_name
locations[0].license	cc-by-sa
locations[0].pdf_url	https://inzynieriamineralna.com.pl/index.php/testowe/article/download/550/346
locations[0].version	publishedVersion
locations[0].raw_type	journal-article
locations[0].license_id	https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa
locations[0].is_accepted	True
locations[0].is_published	True
locations[0].raw_source_name	Inżynieria Mineralna
locations[0].landing_page_url	https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58
indexed_in	crossref
authorships[0].author.id	https://openalex.org/A5026841543
authorships[0].author.orcid	https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4704-7346
authorships[0].author.display_name	Hua‐Liang Wei
authorships[0].countries	GB
authorships[0].affiliations[0].institution_ids	https://openalex.org/I91136226
authorships[0].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string	Department Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
authorships[0].institutions[0].id	https://openalex.org/I91136226
authorships[0].institutions[0].ror	https://ror.org/05krs5044
authorships[0].institutions[0].type	education
authorships[0].institutions[0].lineage	https://openalex.org/I91136226
authorships[0].institutions[0].country_code	GB
authorships[0].institutions[0].display_name	University of Sheffield
authorships[0].author_position	first
authorships[0].raw_author_name	Hua-Liang Wei
authorships[0].is_corresponding	False
authorships[0].raw_affiliation_strings	Department Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
authorships[1].author.id	https://openalex.org/A5078550520
authorships[1].author.orcid	https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1910-0349
authorships[1].author.display_name	Grant R. Bigg
authorships[1].countries	GB
authorships[1].affiliations[0].institution_ids	https://openalex.org/I91136226
authorships[1].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string	Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
authorships[1].institutions[0].id	https://openalex.org/I91136226
authorships[1].institutions[0].ror	https://ror.org/05krs5044
authorships[1].institutions[0].type	education
authorships[1].institutions[0].lineage	https://openalex.org/I91136226
authorships[1].institutions[0].country_code	GB
authorships[1].institutions[0].display_name	University of Sheffield
authorships[1].author_position	middle
authorships[1].raw_author_name	Grant R. Bigg
authorships[1].is_corresponding	False
authorships[1].raw_affiliation_strings	Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
authorships[2].author.id	https://openalex.org/A5057752462
authorships[2].author.orcid	https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8683-182X
authorships[2].author.display_name	Edward Hanna
authorships[2].countries	GB
authorships[2].affiliations[0].institution_ids	https://openalex.org/I51532219
authorships[2].affiliations[0].raw_affiliation_string	Department of Geography and Lincoln Climate Research Group, College of Science, University of Lincoln, UK
authorships[2].institutions[0].id	https://openalex.org/I51532219
authorships[2].institutions[0].ror	https://ror.org/03yeq9x20
authorships[2].institutions[0].type	education
authorships[2].institutions[0].lineage	https://openalex.org/I51532219
authorships[2].institutions[0].country_code	GB
authorships[2].institutions[0].display_name	University of Lincoln
authorships[2].author_position	last
authorships[2].raw_author_name	Edward Hanna
authorships[2].is_corresponding	False
authorships[2].raw_affiliation_strings	Department of Geography and Lincoln Climate Research Group, College of Science, University of Lincoln, UK
has_content.pdf	True
has_content.grobid_xml	True
is_paratext	False
open_access.is_oa	True
open_access.oa_url	https://inzynieriamineralna.com.pl/index.php/testowe/article/download/550/346
open_access.oa_status	diamond
open_access.any_repository_has_fulltext	False
created_date	2024-06-26T00:00:00
display_name	Predicting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Using Nonlinear System Identification Methods and the NARMAX Model
has_fulltext	True
is_retracted	False
updated_date	2025-11-06T03:46:38.306776
primary_topic.id	https://openalex.org/T11459
primary_topic.field.id	https://openalex.org/fields/19
primary_topic.field.display_name	Earth and Planetary Sciences
primary_topic.score	0.9599000215530396
primary_topic.domain.id	https://openalex.org/domains/3
primary_topic.domain.display_name	Physical Sciences
primary_topic.subfield.id	https://openalex.org/subfields/1902
primary_topic.subfield.display_name	Atmospheric Science
primary_topic.display_name	Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
related_works	https://openalex.org/W4391375266, https://openalex.org/W2748952813, https://openalex.org/W2935759653, https://openalex.org/W3105167352, https://openalex.org/W54078636, https://openalex.org/W2954470139, https://openalex.org/W1501425562, https://openalex.org/W2902782467, https://openalex.org/W3084825885, https://openalex.org/W2298861036
cited_by_count	0
locations_count	1
best_oa_location.id	doi:10.29227/im-2024-01-58
best_oa_location.is_oa	True
best_oa_location.source.id	https://openalex.org/S4210195746
best_oa_location.source.issn	1640-4920
best_oa_location.source.type	journal
best_oa_location.source.is_oa	True
best_oa_location.source.issn_l	1640-4920
best_oa_location.source.is_core	False
best_oa_location.source.is_in_doaj	False
best_oa_location.source.display_name	Inżynieria Mineralna
best_oa_location.source.host_organization
best_oa_location.source.host_organization_name
best_oa_location.license	cc-by-sa
best_oa_location.pdf_url	https://inzynieriamineralna.com.pl/index.php/testowe/article/download/550/346
best_oa_location.version	publishedVersion
best_oa_location.raw_type	journal-article
best_oa_location.license_id	https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa
best_oa_location.is_accepted	True
best_oa_location.is_published	True
best_oa_location.raw_source_name	Inżynieria Mineralna
best_oa_location.landing_page_url	https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58
primary_location.id	doi:10.29227/im-2024-01-58
primary_location.is_oa	True
primary_location.source.id	https://openalex.org/S4210195746
primary_location.source.issn	1640-4920
primary_location.source.type	journal
primary_location.source.is_oa	True
primary_location.source.issn_l	1640-4920
primary_location.source.is_core	False
primary_location.source.is_in_doaj	False
primary_location.source.display_name	Inżynieria Mineralna
primary_location.source.host_organization
primary_location.source.host_organization_name
primary_location.license	cc-by-sa
primary_location.pdf_url	https://inzynieriamineralna.com.pl/index.php/testowe/article/download/550/346
primary_location.version	publishedVersion
primary_location.raw_type	journal-article
primary_location.license_id	https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa
primary_location.is_accepted	True
primary_location.is_published	True
primary_location.raw_source_name	Inżynieria Mineralna
primary_location.landing_page_url	https://doi.org/10.29227/im-2024-01-58
publication_date	2024-06-25
publication_year	2024
referenced_works	https://openalex.org/W2094030168, https://openalex.org/W2041760523, https://openalex.org/W2213026911, https://openalex.org/W2402643682, https://openalex.org/W2020096732, https://openalex.org/W1981617612, https://openalex.org/W2805935903, https://openalex.org/W2133853379, https://openalex.org/W2125361807, https://openalex.org/W2943067256, https://openalex.org/W3046226164, https://openalex.org/W2092587625, https://openalex.org/W2098955183, https://openalex.org/W2168478987, https://openalex.org/W1633636015, https://openalex.org/W2949668831, https://openalex.org/W2947308974, https://openalex.org/W2080953913, https://openalex.org/W570566252
referenced_works_count	19
abstract_inverted_index.-	129
abstract_inverted_index.a	200
abstract_inverted_index.In	178
abstract_inverted_index.an	7, 43, 92
abstract_inverted_index.as	40
abstract_inverted_index.in	10, 16, 107
abstract_inverted_index.is	35, 57, 116, 241
abstract_inverted_index.it	56
abstract_inverted_index.of	22, 36, 101, 113, 122, 143, 146, 225, 235, 245, 253
abstract_inverted_index.on	66, 229
abstract_inverted_index.or	85
abstract_inverted_index.to	31, 46, 48, 52, 60, 117, 158, 198, 207
abstract_inverted_index.we	41
abstract_inverted_index.Due	51
abstract_inverted_index.One	234
abstract_inverted_index.Sea	149
abstract_inverted_index.The	0, 20, 110
abstract_inverted_index.and	15, 26, 79, 98, 140, 150, 160, 168, 172, 185, 221
abstract_inverted_index.are	196
abstract_inverted_index.can	71, 89, 248
abstract_inverted_index.its	23, 29
abstract_inverted_index.own	24
abstract_inverted_index.so,	180
abstract_inverted_index.the	11, 27, 53, 74, 77, 102, 114, 119, 123, 134, 144, 155, 162, 166, 173, 186, 205, 208, 215, 223, 226, 230, 236, 243, 251, 254
abstract_inverted_index.use	118, 244
abstract_inverted_index.(NAO	171
abstract_inverted_index.2004	128
abstract_inverted_index.AMOC	78, 103, 124, 167, 206, 227
abstract_inverted_index.Gulf	145
abstract_inverted_index.Sea,	152
abstract_inverted_index.data	121
abstract_inverted_index.four	169, 209, 232
abstract_inverted_index.from	238
abstract_inverted_index.help	249
abstract_inverted_index.main	111
abstract_inverted_index.role	9
abstract_inverted_index.same	156
abstract_inverted_index.show	213
abstract_inverted_index.that	70, 203, 214, 242
abstract_inverted_index.this	239
abstract_inverted_index.time	104
abstract_inverted_index.with	133, 191
abstract_inverted_index.(NAO)	138
abstract_inverted_index.2004.	109
abstract_inverted_index.2017,	131
abstract_inverted_index.AMOC.	255
abstract_inverted_index.April	108, 127
abstract_inverted_index.North	135
abstract_inverted_index.adapt	47
abstract_inverted_index.based	65, 228
abstract_inverted_index.began	106
abstract_inverted_index.doing	179
abstract_inverted_index.input	193
abstract_inverted_index.links	30
abstract_inverted_index.model	202, 218
abstract_inverted_index.other	32, 80, 231
abstract_inverted_index.paper	115
abstract_inverted_index.plays	6
abstract_inverted_index.study	240
abstract_inverted_index.three	174
abstract_inverted_index.today	39
abstract_inverted_index.(AMOC)	5
abstract_inverted_index.Moving	189
abstract_inverted_index.almost	58
abstract_inverted_index.during	126, 154
abstract_inverted_index.global	17
abstract_inverted_index.index,	139
abstract_inverted_index.method	195
abstract_inverted_index.purely	64
abstract_inverted_index.series	105
abstract_inverted_index.system	14, 182
abstract_inverted_index.Average	190
abstract_inverted_index.Mexico,	147
abstract_inverted_index.anomaly	176
abstract_inverted_index.between	76, 165
abstract_inverted_index.change.	19, 50
abstract_inverted_index.climate	18, 33, 49, 82
abstract_inverted_index.coupled	12
abstract_inverted_index.density	141, 175
abstract_inverted_index.derived	216
abstract_inverted_index.develop	199
abstract_inverted_index.drivers	170
abstract_inverted_index.dynamic	81
abstract_inverted_index.improve	250
abstract_inverted_index.methods	184
abstract_inverted_index.models,	63
abstract_inverted_index.monthly	120
abstract_inverted_index.period,	157
abstract_inverted_index.provide	91
abstract_inverted_index.regular	97
abstract_inverted_index.relates	204
abstract_inverted_index.results	212
abstract_inverted_index.(NARMAX)	194
abstract_inverted_index.Atlantic	1, 136
abstract_inverted_index.February	130
abstract_inverted_index.Labrador	148
abstract_inverted_index.accurate	62
abstract_inverted_index.analysis	21
abstract_inverted_index.captures	220
abstract_inverted_index.drivers.	210
abstract_inverted_index.dynamics	34, 224
abstract_inverted_index.employed	197
abstract_inverted_index.enormous	54
abstract_inverted_index.findings	237
abstract_inverted_index.measured	125, 153
abstract_inverted_index.methods,	88
abstract_inverted_index.pressure	45
abstract_inverted_index.together	132
abstract_inverted_index.Exogenous	192
abstract_inverted_index.Nonlinear	187
abstract_inverted_index.Norwegian	151
abstract_inverted_index.anomalies	142
abstract_inverted_index.behaviour	25
abstract_inverted_index.encounter	42
abstract_inverted_index.establish	61
abstract_inverted_index.important	8
abstract_inverted_index.modelling	68, 87
abstract_inverted_index.nonlinear	181, 217
abstract_inverted_index.objective	112
abstract_inverted_index.paramount	37
abstract_inverted_index.perfectly	72
abstract_inverted_index.represent	73
abstract_inverted_index.solution.	95
abstract_inverted_index.therefore	90
abstract_inverted_index.variables	247
abstract_inverted_index.Data-based	84
abstract_inverted_index.Meridional	2
abstract_inverted_index.Systematic	96
abstract_inverted_index.attractive	93
abstract_inverted_index.continuous	99
abstract_inverted_index.importance	38
abstract_inverted_index.impossible	59
abstract_inverted_index.increasing	44
abstract_inverted_index.prediction	252
abstract_inverted_index.represents	222
abstract_inverted_index.skillfully	219
abstract_inverted_index.understand	161
abstract_inverted_index.variables.	233
abstract_inverted_index.Circulation	4
abstract_inverted_index.Oscillation	137
abstract_inverted_index.Overturning	3
abstract_inverted_index.alternative	94
abstract_inverted_index.approaches,	69
abstract_inverted_index.complexity,	55
abstract_inverted_index.data-driven	86
abstract_inverted_index.investigate	159
abstract_inverted_index.measurement	100
abstract_inverted_index.parameters.	83
abstract_inverted_index.variables).	177
abstract_inverted_index.Experimental	211
abstract_inverted_index.quantitative	163, 201
abstract_inverted_index.relationship	164
abstract_inverted_index.ocean-climate	13
abstract_inverted_index.relationships	75
abstract_inverted_index.understanding	28
abstract_inverted_index.AutoRegressive	188
abstract_inverted_index.autoregressive	246
abstract_inverted_index.identification	183
abstract_inverted_index.first-principle	67
cited_by_percentile_year
countries_distinct_count	1
institutions_distinct_count	3
sustainable_development_goals[0].id	https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
sustainable_development_goals[0].score	0.550000011920929
sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name	Climate action
citation_normalized_percentile.value	0.15179684
citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent	False
citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent	False