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Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation • Vol 27 • No 4
Proof of Principle for a Self-Governing Prediction and Forecasting Reward Algorithm
January 2024 • J. O. Gonzalez-Hernandez, Jonathan Marino, T. C. Rogers, Brandon Velasco
We use Monte Carlo techniques to simulate an organized prediction competition between a group of scientific experts acting under the influence of a "self-governing" prediction reward algorithm. Our aim is to illustrate the advantages of a specific type of reward distribution rule that is designed to address some of the limitations of traditional forecast scoring rules. The primary extension of this algorithm as compared with standard forecast scoring is that it incorporates measures of both group consensus and que…
Computer Science
Algorithm
Artificial Intelligence