Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations Article Swipe
YOU?
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· 2021
· Open Access
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· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021
The use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evaluated on a pixel-pair basis, using the difference between simulated and observed (“actual”) map-cell values to evaluate the performance of a model. However, these comparisons conflate location and quantification errors, neglecting possible spatial autocorrelation of evaluated errors. As a result, model performance assessments typically yield moderate accuracy values. In this paper, similarly moderate accuracy values were found in a performance assessment of three depth-averaged numerical models using the 2012 debris avalanche from the Upper Te Maari crater, Tongariro Volcano, as a benchmark. To provide a fairer assessment of performance and evaluate spatial covariance of errors, we use a fuzzy set approach to indicate the proximity of similarly valued map cells. This “fuzzification” of simulated results yields improvements in targeted performance metrics relative to a length scale parameter at the expense of decreases in opposing metrics (e.g. fewer false negatives result in more false positives) and a reduction in resolution. The use of this approach to generate hazard zones incorporating the identified uncertainty and associated trade-offs is demonstrated and indicates a potential use for informed stakeholders by reducing the complexity of uncertainty estimation and supporting decision-making from simulated data.
Related Topics
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 3
- References
- 61
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
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Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W3129773527Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulationsWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2021Year of publication
- Publication date
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2021-08-20Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Stuart Mead, Jonathan Procter, Gábor KereszturiList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021Publisher landing page
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Uncertainty quantification, Hazard, Computer science, Debris flow, Benchmark (surveying), Hazard analysis, Data mining, Statistics, Algorithm, Covariance, Mathematics, Geology, Debris, Reliability engineering, Engineering, Geodesy, Oceanography, Chemistry, Organic chemistryTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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3Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 1, 2023: 2Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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61Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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