Quantifying Planetary Boundaries interaction strengths with expert knowledge elicitation Article Swipe
Anna Chrysafi
,
Mika Jalava
,
Vili Virkki
,
Miina Porkka
,
Vilma Sandström
,
Johannes Piipponen
,
Kelsey LaMere
,
Steven J. Lade
,
Matti Kummu
·
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14639
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14639
<p>The concept of planetary boundaries (PBs) was developed to set biophysical limits to human perturbations and to maintain the Earth System at its current steady-state. Research has focused on further updating and improving the PBs, while utilizing them as the conditional basis for sustainable development. A limitation of the current approaches, and focus of our work, is that the PBs closely related to food production are assessed individually without considering their interactions and feedbacks. These PBs include surface water use, land-system change, biogeochemical flows, and biosphere integrity. Such an omission could potentially overestimate the margin for food production within PBs on a local scale, which could have negative implications for sustainable food supply.  </p><p>Here, we aim to quantify these interactions with the ultimate goal of estimating a more realistic safe operating space (SOS) for future food production. We build on earlier literature review-based work that identified and quantified many PBs interactions on global scale but was unable to identify and quantify some of the interactions that are important to food production. Thus, we move a step forward by using expert knowledge elicitation to quantify the PBs interactions important to food production at local scale and to qualitatively map the mediating biophysical mechanisms. Expert knowledge elicitation suits the study well since it can fill knowledge gaps when quantitative data is scarce. In this work, we identified the missing links and expanded our knowledge on existing PBs interactions. Following recent work on updating PBs definitions, we divided the biosphere integrity PB into land, freshwater, and ocean components and the surface water PB into blue and green water components. These divisions accommodate for the differences among the Earth System functions. Where needed, we developed new interim control variables to enable quantifying the interaction strengths.</p><p>The expert knowledge elicitation was conducted remotely following the IDEA elicitation protocol and utilizing a custom-made web application. A total of 37 experts, in various fields of Earth sciences, completed the process and we received input for all 42 interactions, ranging from 5 to 19 responses each, with a median response rate of 9. We collected both quantitative and qualitative data on interaction strengths, tipping points, and mediating mechanisms, which are aggregated and used in synergy to better describe complex Earth System processes. In addition, we aim to highlight the most important interactions in an effort to prioritize them based on their role in the Earth System and existing knowledge gaps.</p>
Related Topics
Concepts
Expert elicitation
Production (economics)
Planetary boundaries
Scale (ratio)
Environmental science
Food processing
Set (abstract data type)
Computer science
Biochemical engineering
Environmental resource management
Sustainable development
Ecology
Biology
Mathematics
Engineering
Physics
Food science
Macroeconomics
Economics
Programming language
Statistics
Quantum mechanics
Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14639
- OA Status
- gold
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W3202035203
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W3202035203Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14639Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Quantifying Planetary Boundaries interaction strengths with expert knowledge elicitationWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2021Year of publication
- Publication date
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2021-03-04Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Anna Chrysafi, Mika Jalava, Vili Virkki, Miina Porkka, Vilma Sandström, Johannes Piipponen, Kelsey LaMere, Steven J. Lade, Matti KummuList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14639Publisher landing page
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14639Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Expert elicitation, Production (economics), Planetary boundaries, Scale (ratio), Environmental science, Food processing, Set (abstract data type), Computer science, Biochemical engineering, Environmental resource management, Sustainable development, Ecology, Biology, Mathematics, Engineering, Physics, Food science, Macroeconomics, Economics, Programming language, Statistics, Quantum mechanicsTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
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0Total citation count in OpenAlex
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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