Quantitative assessment of observed versus predicted responses to selection Article Swipe
Christophe Pélabon
,
Elena Albertsen
,
Arnaud Le Rouzic
,
Cyril Firmat
,
Geir H. Bolstad
,
W. Scott Armbruster
,
Thomas F. Hansen
·
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.14284
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.14284
Although artificial-selection experiments seem well suited to testing our ability to predict evolution, the correspondence between predicted and observed responses is often ambiguous due to the lack of uncertainty estimates. We present equations for assessing prediction error in direct and indirect responses to selection that integrate uncertainty in genetic parameters used for prediction and sampling effects during selection. Using these, we analyzed a selection experiment on floral traits replicated in two taxa of the Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) species complex for which G-matrices were obtained from a diallel breeding design. After four episodes of bidirectional selection, direct and indirect responses remained within wide prediction intervals, but appeared different from the predictions. Combined analyses with structural-equation models confirmed that responses were asymmetrical and lower than predicted in both species. We show that genetic drift is likely to be a dominant source of uncertainty in typically-dimensioned selection experiments in plants and a major obstacle to predicting short-term evolutionary trajectories.
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Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.14284
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/evo.14284
- OA Status
- hybrid
- Cited By
- 9
- References
- 107
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W3172303104
All OpenAlex metadata
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- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W3172303104Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.14284Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Quantitative assessment of observed versus predicted responses to selectionWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2021Year of publication
- Publication date
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2021-06-17Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Christophe Pélabon, Elena Albertsen, Arnaud Le Rouzic, Cyril Firmat, Geir H. Bolstad, W. Scott Armbruster, Thomas F. HansenList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.14284Publisher landing page
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/evo.14284Direct link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
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hybridOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/evo.14284Direct OA link when available
- Concepts
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Biology, Selection (genetic algorithm), Diallel cross, Quantitative genetics, Statistics, Evolutionary biology, Ecology, Genetic variation, Machine learning, Mathematics, Genetics, Computer science, Hybrid, Botany, GeneTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
9Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2024: 1, 2023: 3, 2022: 4, 2021: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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107Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| abstract_inverted_index.confirmed | 115 |
| abstract_inverted_index.different | 106 |
| abstract_inverted_index.equations | 32 |
| abstract_inverted_index.integrate | 45 |
| abstract_inverted_index.predicted | 16, 123 |
| abstract_inverted_index.responses | 19, 41, 98, 117 |
| abstract_inverted_index.selection | 43, 63, 143 |
| abstract_inverted_index.G-matrices | 81 |
| abstract_inverted_index.estimates. | 29 |
| abstract_inverted_index.evolution, | 12 |
| abstract_inverted_index.experiment | 64 |
| abstract_inverted_index.intervals, | 103 |
| abstract_inverted_index.parameters | 49 |
| abstract_inverted_index.predicting | 152 |
| abstract_inverted_index.prediction | 35, 52, 102 |
| abstract_inverted_index.replicated | 68 |
| abstract_inverted_index.selection, | 94 |
| abstract_inverted_index.selection. | 57 |
| abstract_inverted_index.short-term | 153 |
| abstract_inverted_index.Dalechampia | 74 |
| abstract_inverted_index.experiments | 2, 144 |
| abstract_inverted_index.uncertainty | 28, 46, 140 |
| abstract_inverted_index.asymmetrical | 119 |
| abstract_inverted_index.evolutionary | 154 |
| abstract_inverted_index.predictions. | 109 |
| abstract_inverted_index.bidirectional | 93 |
| abstract_inverted_index.trajectories. | 155 |
| abstract_inverted_index.correspondence | 14 |
| abstract_inverted_index.(Euphorbiaceae) | 76 |
| abstract_inverted_index.structural-equation | 113 |
| abstract_inverted_index.artificial-selection | 1 |
| abstract_inverted_index.typically-dimensioned | 142 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.max | 97 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.min | 89 |
| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5075913224 |
| countries_distinct_count | 4 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 7 |
| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I204778367 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].id | https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].score | 0.6399999856948853 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name | Life in Land |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.9112704 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | False |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | True |