Regional economic analysis of flood defence heights at the German Baltic Sea coast: A multi-method cost-benefit approach for flood prevention Article Swipe
Thomas van der Pol
,
Jochen Hinkel
,
Jan-Ludolf Merkens
,
Leigh R. MacPherson
,
Athanasios T. Vafeidis
,
Arne Arns
,
Sönke Dangendorf
·
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100289
YOU?
·
· 2021
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100289
Mean and extreme sea-level uncertainties, as well as uncertainty about future flood exposure, hinder the risk-based optimisation of flood protection investments. To deal with these uncertainties, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and methods for robust decision-making can be combined. This paper sequentially applies CBA, robust optimisation methods and info-gap analysis to find efficient and robust coastal flood protection strategies for the German Baltic Sea coast. The CBA results suggest that – under flood risk assumptions – a share of the coast of Schleswig-Holstein (9.3–10.1%; 60–65 km) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (4.1–10.0%; 78–189 km) with relatively high flood exposure, might currently be under-protected from a social welfare perspective. Present Value estimates of regional investment costs of five regret or loss minimising strategies range from 1.7 to 4.8 billion Euro across robustness metrics at 3% discounting. The info-gap analysis suggests that some of these strategies will fail to prevent large-scale damages under high-end scenarios. We conclude that a multi-method cost-benefit approach can be used to narrow down the number of solutions that are both potentially efficient and sufficiently robust by investigating strategy performance within, across and beyond predefined scenarios.
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- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100289
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 28
- References
- 61
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W3132976488
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
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https://openalex.org/W3132976488Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100289Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Regional economic analysis of flood defence heights at the German Baltic Sea coast: A multi-method cost-benefit approach for flood preventionWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2021Year of publication
- Publication date
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2021-01-01Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Thomas van der Pol, Jochen Hinkel, Jan-Ludolf Merkens, Leigh R. MacPherson, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Arne Arns, Sönke DangendorfList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100289Publisher landing page
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100289Direct OA link when available
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Flood myth, Environmental science, Damages, Cost–benefit analysis, Environmental resource management, Regret, Discounting, Robustness (evolution), Computer science, Business, Geography, Gene, Law, Ecology, Machine learning, Political science, Biochemistry, Biology, Chemistry, Archaeology, FinanceTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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28Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2025: 2, 2024: 2, 2023: 14, 2022: 8, 2021: 2Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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61Number of works referenced by this work
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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