Skilful probabilistic medium‐range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system Article Swipe
Lucy Main
,
Sarah Sparrow
,
Antje Weisheimer
,
Matthew Wright
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2222
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2222
Dengue fever is a source of substantial health burden in Vietnam. Given the well‐established influence of temperature and precipitation on vector biology and disease transmission, predictions of meteorological variables, such as those issued by ECMWF as a world‐leading provider of global ensemble forecasts, are likely to be valuable model inputs to a future dengue early warning system. In the absence of established verification at municipal and regional scales, this study assesses the skill of rainy season (May–October) ensemble precipitation and 2‐m temperature retrospective forecasts over North and South Vietnam initialized for dates during the period 2001–2020, evaluated against the ERA5 reanalysis for the same period. Forecasts are found to be significantly skilful compared with both climatology and persistence for lead times up to 10 days, including for cumulative precipitation values considered against independent rain gauge data. Rank histograms demonstrate that ensembles generally avoid excessive bias and consistently positive CRPSS values indicate substantial skill for temperature and cumulative precipitation forecasts for all spatial scales considered, despite differences in rainy season characteristics between North and South Vietnam. This forecast reliability demonstrates that meteorological input data based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts would add appreciably more value to the development of a future dengue early warning system compared to reference forecasts like climatology or persistence. These results raise hope for further exploration of predictive skill for relevant meteorological variables, particularly focused on their downscaling to produce district‐level epidemiological forecasts for urban areas where dengue is most prevalent.
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Metadata
- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2222
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/met.2222
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 3
- References
- 44
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
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All OpenAlex metadata
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https://openalex.org/W4401394820Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2222Digital Object Identifier
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Skilful probabilistic medium‐range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning systemWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
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2024Year of publication
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2024-07-01Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Lucy Main, Sarah Sparrow, Antje Weisheimer, Matthew WrightList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2222Publisher landing page
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/met.2222Direct link to full text PDF
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goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/met.2222Direct OA link when available
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Precipitation, Climatology, Downscaling, Environmental science, Dengue fever, Early warning system, Warning system, Quantitative precipitation forecast, Forecast skill, Meteorology, Geography, Computer science, Telecommunications, Immunology, Biology, GeologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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3Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 3Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| publication_date | 2024-07-01 |
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