Spatial validation reveals poor predictive performance of large-scale ecological mapping models Article Swipe
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· 2020
· Open Access
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· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18321-y
Mapping aboveground forest biomass is central for assessing the global carbon balance. However, current large-scale maps show strong disparities, despite good validation statistics of their underlying models. Here, we attribute this contradiction to a flaw in the validation methods, which ignore spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in data, leading to overoptimistic assessment of model predictive power. To illustrate this issue, we reproduce the approach of large-scale mapping studies using a massive forest inventory dataset of 11.8 million trees in central Africa to train and validate a random forest model based on multispectral and environmental variables. A standard nonspatial validation method suggests that the model predicts more than half of the forest biomass variation, while spatial validation methods accounting for SAC reveal quasi-null predictive power. This study underscores how a common practice in big data mapping studies shows an apparent high predictive power, even when predictors have poor relationships with the ecological variable of interest, thus possibly leading to erroneous maps and interpretations.
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- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18321-y
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18321-y.pdf
- OA Status
- gold
- Cited By
- 557
- References
- 61
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W3085784695
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W3085784695Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18321-yDigital Object Identifier
- Title
-
Spatial validation reveals poor predictive performance of large-scale ecological mapping modelsWork title
- Type
-
articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
-
enPrimary language
- Publication year
-
2020Year of publication
- Publication date
-
2020-09-11Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Pierre Ploton, Frédéric Mortier, Maxime Réjou‐Méchain, Nicolas Barbier, Nicolas Picard, Vivien Rossi, Carsten F. Dormann, Guillaume Cornu, Gaëlle Viennois, Nicolas Bayol, Alexei Lyapustin, Sylvie Gourlet‐Fleury, Raphaël PélissierList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18321-yPublisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18321-y.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
goldOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18321-y.pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
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Scale (ratio), Spatial ecology, Ecology, Computer science, Environmental science, Geography, Cartography, BiologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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557Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 115, 2024: 120, 2023: 88, 2022: 118, 2021: 109Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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61Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| abstract_inverted_index.validation | 22, 38, 97, 114 |
| abstract_inverted_index.variables. | 93 |
| abstract_inverted_index.variation, | 111 |
| abstract_inverted_index.aboveground | 2 |
| abstract_inverted_index.large-scale | 15, 64 |
| abstract_inverted_index.underscores | 125 |
| abstract_inverted_index.disparities, | 19 |
| abstract_inverted_index.contradiction | 32 |
| abstract_inverted_index.environmental | 92 |
| abstract_inverted_index.multispectral | 90 |
| abstract_inverted_index.relationships | 146 |
| abstract_inverted_index.overoptimistic | 49 |
| abstract_inverted_index.autocorrelation | 43 |
| abstract_inverted_index.interpretations. | 160 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.max | 100 |
| cited_by_percentile_year.min | 98 |
| corresponding_author_ids | https://openalex.org/A5091350220 |
| countries_distinct_count | 3 |
| institutions_distinct_count | 13 |
| corresponding_institution_ids | https://openalex.org/I1294671590, https://openalex.org/I131077856, https://openalex.org/I19894307, https://openalex.org/I24906876, https://openalex.org/I4210088668, https://openalex.org/I4210121611, https://openalex.org/I4210166444 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].id | https://metadata.un.org/sdg/15 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].score | 0.6399999856948853 |
| sustainable_development_goals[0].display_name | Life in Land |
| citation_normalized_percentile.value | 0.9992827 |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_1_percent | True |
| citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent | True |