Stabilizing the return to normal behavior in an epidemic Article Swipe
Tyrus Berry
,
Matthew J. Ferrari
,
Timothy Sauer
,
Steven J. Greybush
,
Donald Ebeigbe
,
Andrew J. Whalen
,
Steven J. Schiff
·
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.13.23287222
YOU?
·
· 2023
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.13.23287222
Predicting the interplay between infectious disease and behavior has been an intractable problem because behavioral response is so varied. We introduce a general framework for feedback between incidence and behavior for an infectious disease. By identifying stable equilibria, we provide policy end-states that are self-managing and self-maintaining. We prove mathematically the existence of two new endemic equilibria depending on the vaccination rate: one in the presence of low vaccination but with reduced societal activity (the “new normal”), and one with return to normal activity but with vaccination rate below that required for disease elimination. This framework allows us to anticipate the long-term consequence of an emerging disease and design a vaccination response that optimizes public health and limits societal consequences. Significance Statement The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed that behavior can change dramatically in response to the spread of a disease. This behavioral response impacts disease transmission. Predicting future outcomes requires accounting for the feedback between behavior and transmission. We show that accounting for these feedbacks generates long-term predictions about disease burden and behavior that can guide policy.
Related Topics
Concepts
Disease
Vaccination
Pandemic
Disease transmission
Infectious disease (medical specialty)
Behavior change
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Transmission (telecommunications)
Public health
Public economics
Economics
Medicine
Psychology
Computer science
Social psychology
Immunology
Virology
Telecommunications
Pathology
Nursing
Metadata
- Type
- preprint
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.13.23287222
- https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2023/05/22/2023.03.13.23287222.full.pdf
- OA Status
- green
- Cited By
- 2
- References
- 48
- Related Works
- 10
- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4327913225
All OpenAlex metadata
Raw OpenAlex JSON
- OpenAlex ID
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https://openalex.org/W4327913225Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.13.23287222Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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Stabilizing the return to normal behavior in an epidemicWork title
- Type
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preprintOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2023Year of publication
- Publication date
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2023-03-20Full publication date if available
- Authors
-
Tyrus Berry, Matthew J. Ferrari, Timothy Sauer, Steven J. Greybush, Donald Ebeigbe, Andrew J. Whalen, Steven J. SchiffList of authors in order
- Landing page
-
https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.13.23287222Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2023/05/22/2023.03.13.23287222.full.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
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YesWhether a free full text is available
- OA status
-
greenOpen access status per OpenAlex
- OA URL
-
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2023/05/22/2023.03.13.23287222.full.pdfDirect OA link when available
- Concepts
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Disease, Vaccination, Pandemic, Disease transmission, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Behavior change, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Transmission (telecommunications), Public health, Public economics, Economics, Medicine, Psychology, Computer science, Social psychology, Immunology, Virology, Telecommunications, Pathology, NursingTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
- Cited by
-
2Total citation count in OpenAlex
- Citations by year (recent)
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2025: 2Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
- References (count)
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48Number of works referenced by this work
- Related works (count)
-
10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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