The Attribution of February Extremes over North America: A Forecast-Based Storyline Study Article Swipe
Donghyun Lee
,
Sarah Sparrow
,
Nicholas Leach
,
Scott Osprey
,
Jinah Lee
,
Myles Allen
·
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0074.1
YOU?
·
· 2024
· Open Access
·
· DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0074.1
The importance of extreme event attribution rises as climate change causes severe damage to populations resulting from unprecedented events. In February 2019, a planetary wave shifted along the U.S.–Canadian border, simultaneously leading to troughing with anomalous cold events and ridging over Alaska and northern Canada with abnormal warm events. Also, a dry-stabilized anticyclonic circulation over low latitudes induced warm extreme events over Mexico and Florida. Most attribution studies compare the climate model simulations under natural or actual forcing conditions and assess probabilistically from a climatological point of view. However, in this study, we use multiple ensembles from an operational forecast model, promising statistical as well as dynamically constrained attribution assessment, often referred to as the storyline approach to extreme event attribution. In the globally averaged results, increasing CO 2 concentrations lead to distinct warming signals at the surface, resulting mainly from diabatic heating. Our study finds that CO 2 -induced warming eventually affects the possibility of extreme events in North America, quantifying the impact of anthropogenic forcing over less than a week’s forecast simulation. Our study assesses the validity of the storyline approach conditional on the forecast lead times, which is hindered by rising noise in CO 2 signals and the declining performance of the forecast model. The forecast-based storyline approach is valid for at least half of the land area within a 6-day lead time before the target extreme occurrence. Our attribution results highlight the importance of achieving net-zero emissions ahead of schedule to reduce the occurrence of severe heatwaves.
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- Type
- article
- Language
- en
- Landing Page
- https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0074.1
- https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-24-0074.1/JCLI-D-24-0074.1.pdf
- OA Status
- hybrid
- Cited By
- 1
- References
- 71
- Related Works
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- OpenAlex ID
- https://openalex.org/W4400047407
All OpenAlex metadata
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https://openalex.org/W4400047407Canonical identifier for this work in OpenAlex
- DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0074.1Digital Object Identifier
- Title
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The Attribution of February Extremes over North America: A Forecast-Based Storyline StudyWork title
- Type
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articleOpenAlex work type
- Language
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enPrimary language
- Publication year
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2024Year of publication
- Publication date
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2024-06-26Full publication date if available
- Authors
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Donghyun Lee, Sarah Sparrow, Nicholas Leach, Scott Osprey, Jinah Lee, Myles AllenList of authors in order
- Landing page
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https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0074.1Publisher landing page
- PDF URL
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https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-24-0074.1/JCLI-D-24-0074.1.pdfDirect link to full text PDF
- Open access
-
YesWhether a free full text is available
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hybridOpen access status per OpenAlex
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https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-24-0074.1/JCLI-D-24-0074.1.pdfDirect OA link when available
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Climatology, Attribution, Environmental science, Meteorology, Geology, Geography, Psychology, Social psychologyTop concepts (fields/topics) attached by OpenAlex
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1Total citation count in OpenAlex
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2025: 1Per-year citation counts (last 5 years)
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10Other works algorithmically related by OpenAlex
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| primary_location.is_published | True |
| primary_location.raw_source_name | Journal of Climate |
| primary_location.landing_page_url | https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0074.1 |
| publication_date | 2024-06-26 |
| publication_year | 2024 |
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